Sunday, September 22, 2013

P62013: Week 4 Is a Good Time to Look Back

Listen to this cool, languid song while you read this week's update. It's fitting.

Games watched: Clemson-NC State (Thurs), Boise-Fresno (Fri), Iowa-Western Mitten (2nd half), La Tech-Kansas (the very end, to see if Kansas would lose), Sparty-Notre Dame, Tennessee-Florida (2nd TV), Arizona St.-Stanford, Auburn-LSU, Utah-BYU. 

Last week I looked at the upcoming slate of games and thought, to quote second-year Pick Sixer "LizzieBear":

There was only one game between ranked teams. That was the only loss in the entire Top 25. The top 14 of this week's poll is the same as last week. There are 47 teams active in the game (the top 25 and 22 Pick Sixths), and there were only seven matchups between teams in the game. None of them really mattered.

In short: nothing changed. Arizona State (loser of that Top 25 matchup) is out, Fresno State is in. No teams really moved up or down in the poll, so no players really moved.

So let's take a minute to look back on the first four weeks of the season. The highest ranked team to fall out of the poll is Texas (preseason No. 15). Nebraska, Boise, Oregon State and Southern Cal also have departed.

Poor Texas. (I can say that because I picked them.) After their Week 3 loss to Ole Miss, things were bad. According to a comment on Burnt Orange Nation, this was the first since Texas had back-to-back losses of 19+ points since 1994. Yeouwch. I don't think we'll see the Longhorns in the Top 25 anytime soon. also from the same article: "This is the 8th time in our last 13 games an opponent has set a career high in rushing."

Here's another question: who had the best road win (not neutral site) in the first four weeks? The clear answer is Alabama over then-No. 6 Texas A&M in Week 3. Here are some other nominees:

Week 1: FSU at Pitt. That assumes that Pitt is good enough to brag about beating. Pitt is 2-1, so maybe.
Week 2: Oregon at Virginia. Of course, Oregon should win that game, no matter where it is. 
Week 3: #1 Alabama hangs on to win at #6 Texas A&M 49-42
Week 3: Ole Miss at Texas? On paper that looks good, but there are two weeks of evidence that Texas is awful. The win over K-State is a minor reassurance, but we'll need more evidence. 
Week 3: Ohio State at Cal? Maybe, but Cal lost to a I-AA school and Northwestern. 
Week 3: Notre Dame at Purdue? ND played awful for three quarters and then stole a victory with a furious late comeback. Plus, it's Purdue. That shouldn't be a note-worthy win. 
Week 3: UCLA at Nebraska. If Nebraska gets their defense in order, that might look good by the end of the year. 

Checking in on Iowa: After losing to a MAC school in Week 1, Iowa has rolled off three straight wins. The Missouri State and ISU wins were not impressive. Yesterday's 59-3 win over Western Mitten was impressive.

At the beginning of the year, the math to get a bowl was simple: win the four non-conference games, beat the two weakest conference foes on the slate, Minnesota and Purdue, lose the rest and you're 6-6. Now with that NIU loss, Iowa has to find another potential victory among Michigan State, Northwestern or Nebraska, and still beat the two weaklings. Before Saturday, I would have thought that impossible. But after Iowa scored 59 at home and Michigan State scored 13 on the road, I have a shred of optimism.

Enough jibber jabber, who's winning?

I telegraphed this, but in case you weren't paying attention, "Dirty Diapers" keeps the lead. Until Alabama, A&M or Florida State loses, get used to this picture. Top dog: "SuperPups" in 3rd. Top kid: "Daddy's reason to like softball" in 12th (tie). Top kitty: my furry little friend Franklin "The F Bomb" in 19th (tie).

The links:

P62013 Scoreboard
Points for each team
AP Top 25 Poll

Next week: Much better games on the docket, including Georgia-LSU and Ohio State-Wisconsin.

No comments: