The Importance of Ohio

Commenter83F has asked for a change of pace, something besides the flood of college football posts. There WILL be more college football, as the excitement of the season heats up. But for those seeking a little something different, here's a post on a topic slightly less important than the start of football.

The future of our country.

In the last two weeks, we've seen the next president of the United States (we think and hope) give a stirring oratory to 80,000 people in the only venue large enough to hold 80,000 people (a football stadium). And, we saw a 40-something PTA mom from a small town with almost no political experience explain why she should be a (72-year-old's) heartbeat away from the nuclear codes.

Vote if you want. Or don't vote, I don't care. Because I've been looking at the maps, and all I care about is: Ohio. (Someone get a tape recorder, I don't think I've ever said that before.)

The guy who runs this site called Electoral Vote has a thorough list of polls and projections. Here is his map as of today, September 5: (click to enlarge either map)

He's got a healthy electoral win for Obama, 301 to 224, with Virginia as a dead heat (13 electoral votes). He sees six states that went Bush in 2004 coming back to the positive side: Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota and our all important Buckeyes (and Bobcats).

Now take a look at this map, from a GOP site called Federal Review (which I found via Election Projection, a site linked in fairness by the good guy at EV.)



Source: this linky right here.

(His projections suck, but I can't argue with his motto of "Solve the world's problems one beer at a time.") He sees a much closer race, with a gap of 11 and 29 tossups (Viriginia plus Montana, Colorado and New Hampsha.) As you can see, they basically disagree on four of the six potential swings (from Rep/Bush in 2004 to Dem/Obama in 2008), as he concedes IA and NM for now. The "small three": Colorado 9, Nevada 5, North Dakota 3. That's 17 electoral votes, vs. 20 from the "Big O" (or the "Big OH") itself.

Taking Ohio out of the McCain column in this Republican-biased Federal Review projection gives Obama the win with 280 votes. Even assuming all 29 ties swing to McCain, he only has 249 (start) - 20 (OH) + 29 (swings) = 258 without Ohio. I don't care how many henchmen you stack the Supreme Court with, that's a winnah for Obama.

Even Election Projection (currently scoring it 278-260) gives Ohio to McCain. Steal that back, and it's 298-240, a much more comfortable margin. Not like I want Obama to lose states like CO and IA...victories there would show his ability to win hippies and farmers, who rarely agree on anything. But with Ohio, it becomes a moot point.

So get out there and do what is necessary to deliver Ohio. Even if you aren't in a rock band.

More football coming soon!