Mets vs. Cubs

I don't think I've ever been so unexcited about going to a major league baseball game in my life, at least not in recent memory.

Sure, some of it was the cool, gray weather. Some because I went into the office for three boring hours just to come back home. Mostly though, it was the incredible failures of the Mets (58-70, 16.5 games out of first place) and Cubs (63-62, 9 games out), two teams expected to contend for their division and more this year, after disappointing ends to last season.

For the Mets, the Great Suck of 2009 is shocking but understandable. Look at who they trotted out on the last Friday of August, compared to the Opening Day lineup (by position, not batting order ... obviously Jose Reyes would be leadoff):

• Pagan, CF (Beltran. Out since June 22 with bone bruise in right knee)
• Castillo, 2B (same.)
• Murphy, 1B (Delgado. Out since May 11 with hip problems, then strained his oblique during rehab)
• Franceour, RF (Ryan Church. Traded July 10 to Atlanta for ... Jeff Franceour)
• Tatis, 3B (David Wright. Hit in the head by a Matt Cain fastball on Aug. 16, still on DL ... warning, link has pic of Wright getting hit)
• Santos, C (Brian Schneider. Still on the roster, but has only caught 47 games this year vs. 110 last year.)
• Sullivan, LF (Murphy. Moved to first after Delgado's injury.)
• Valdez, SS (Reyes. Out since May 21 with a hamstring tear and calf tendinitis)
• Misch, P (Johan Santana. Out for season since Aug. 21 with shoulder injury)

Does anyone remember this man? Anybody? (photo taken Spring Training 2007)

Result: one of nine the same, with up to five season-ending injuries. Just insane. I haven't mentioned pitchers like J.J. Putz and Oliver Perez and John Maine who have missed significant time. No doubt wherever he is, Mr Met is crying.

This is close as I could come to an unhappy Mr. Met.

For comparison, the Cubs had six guys exactly where they were on Opening Day (Suckyano, D-Lee, Bradley, Ramirez, Soto, The Riot) with two others available and active (Zambrano and Fukudome).

This was in many respects an evenly matched game. Both teams had 32 at-bats. Both pitchers finished seven innings. There was a tie score for most of the game, and you never felt either team had an advantage (even with the four-run outburst in the 8th, the Mets still had the combustible combo of Marmol and Gregg in the Cubs pen). Both left seven men on base, generally failing to seize opportunities.

The deciding factor appeared to be the lethargy of the Cubs. While the Mets have struggled with a makeshift lineup decimated by injuries to their stars, the Cubs have mostly just flat out under-performed (yes I know there have been injuries too ... but not as long-lasting and devastating as the Mets).

In the 2nd inning, Omir Santos lofted a shot into the Bermuda's triangle of shallow right. Lee and Baker went out, and Milton Bradley came in. Bradley got leather on it, but showed no effort or hustle. I scored it a hit for Santos (as did the official scorer) but Bradley could have made it a tougher call or even an out.

And in the top of the 8th, ex-Cub Angel Pagan hit a shot into the gap. Soriano casually jogged over and half-heartedly waved at the ball as it went under his glove. One, he could have gotten there a little sooner and tried to make a play with his team down one. Two, he should have at least picked it up on the hop, not let it roll past him. Pagan had a double either way, so no error was charged. But it was a lackluster, lazy play that defines the 2009 Cubs. Of course, I haven't mentioned his actual error, in the 4th, when a standard pop fly hit off his glove.

But hey, Suckyano did his best Sammy impersonation by making up for it all with a three-run homer in the 8th. Marmol got the save, fans got to sing "Go Cubs Go," and TM and I saw our first Cubs win live in almost a year. So yay for Cub fans.

Mr. Met in happier times.

The scorecard: (click for larger)



The official wrap and box score here. Note to 83F: Fuld started, but didn't do anything at the plate or in the field.

Back in Business

This morning I was thumbing through the alumni notes section of the latest Notre Dame Magazine. An alum remembered back to those first days on campus in August and hearing the marching band practicing off in the distance. It is a moment Father Ted has described as knowing "we're back in business."

With the cool weather lately--chill and clouds that have you reaching into the bottom drawer for a sweatshirt or hoodie before you realize the calendar still says summer--it's easy to not notice the season approaching. But it's getting closer. First we had reports of freshmen reporting to campus. Then the coaches poll, which everyone knows is a joke but was our first taste of actual information.

Now we have the real poll (AP poll) to chew over. We have point spread lines from Vegas we can actually believe. The managers of pick 'em games are sending emails that instead of saying "I can't wait for the season" say "this week's picks are out." On Monday or Tuesday we'll have depth charts that aren't for spring football, or camp, or fan-generated, but for actual Week 1 competition.

Ohhhhhhh I'm ready.

It technically starts Thursday night, with an ESPN game actually worth watching (Oregon at Boise State ... seems like in years past it's Mississippi State vs. Directional Louisana type games). It really starts a week from tomorrow morning, at 11am, when Iowa kicks off against Nothern Iowa. In between there will a drive to Ohio, a new College GameDay song, and hopefully, we're told, the return of football's Dickie V.


It's a long week, from now til Saturday. But it's only one week, and the light at the end of our weeklong tunnel ... is a glowing TV set, beaming college football into your eyeballs.

Comparing Iowa and Notre Dame

I was talking to my dad last week, and he asked me how things are looking for Iowa and Notre Dame. "Don't you read the blog?" I asked. (My parents never read the blog.) "Naw, I don't read blogs," Dad said. Well Dad, here's a look at those two teams.

Dad: "How do I get to this blog of yours?"

The preseason rankings are starting to trickle out, and most see the Hawks and Irish congregating at the bottom of the Top 25. That's progress, considering they spent a combined zero weeks in the Top 25 in 2008. (Iowa cracked the list after the dominating bowl win to finish at 9-4.) The coaches have Iowa #21 and ND #23. The New York Times is similar, with Iowa #19 and ND #21. AP comes out on Aug. 22. Phil, as mentioned before, is high on the Irish (or just high).

Comparing Iowa and Notre Dame, I see some similarities. One is the quarterback position: strength at starter and lack of depth. Ricky Stanzi may not have announced his commitment at the College Football Hall of Fame, but he did lead a season-defining, fourth-quarter game-winning drive. Behind him are Jake Christensen (oops, transferred) and Marvin McNutt (uhhh, switched to wide receiver) ... are, uh, two redshirt freshmen. Behind Jimmy are redshirt freshman Dayne Christ and true freshman Nate Montana (err, going to play at junior college this fall), and Evan Sharpley (a fifth-year senior and professional first baseman who luckily came back). Guess it's good we have experienced O-lines--more on that in a sec.

Also, both schools make the Phil Steele Surprise Teams article. That's his list of schools outside the preseason consensus Top 10 that could rise up and win the national championship. The Irish are No. 4, the Hawks are almost No. 10. Phil writes: "The highest rated of my remaining teams (after No. 9) is Iowa but they have to play Ohio St AND Penn St along with Michigan St and Wisconsin all on the road."

One factor of sharp contrast is balance. Thanks to the once-a-generation performance of Shonn Greene, Iowa exhibited excellent run-pass balance in 2008: 189 yards rushing, 182 yards throwing per game. A near-even split means the defense never knows what's coming, they can't key in on just one aspect, and they have to respect the play-action pass. By contrast, Coach "we're gonna pound it" Weis must have a different definition of "pound it," because the Irish ran for just 110 yards per game (ypg), throwing for 245. (This, by the way, is the second-worst rushing effort in Irish history, behind the 2007 debacle we all erased from our memory.)

Besides ypg rushing, I also looked at average yards per carry (ypc) and sacks allowed. If there's one thing I learned living in Nebraska, it's the importance of a strong offensive line in college football (also, that Omaha is not a great place for a 20-something non-native to live). Notre Dame had 110 rush ypg last year, as mentioned, and ypc of 3.3. Iowa had the record-setting performance by Greene, pushing the numbers to 189 and 4.8. But that's not a once-a-lifetime performance: Iowa produced 175 ypg and 4.8 ypc in 2005, and 215 ypg and 5.0 ypc in 2002. The Irish haven't cracked 4.0 ypc or 150 ypg since Ty's first year! With Allen, Hughes and Alridge in the backfield, and Gray, Wood and Riddick waiting in the wings, the running game simply has to be better to justify the expectations.

For context, Florida has produced 4.2 ypc or better five of the past six years, and Southern Cal has gone 4.0, 5.0 and 5.0 ypc in the years following the insane Bush-fueled 6.4 in 2005. This is where I'd like to see my teams.

As for sacks: ND gave up 22, Iowa gave up 27. I think you can chalk some of that up to quarterback inexperience, with sophomore and first-time starter Stanzi learning how to avoid the rush and dump off an incompletion. After all, Christensen was sacked 46 times in '07, and most of ND's 58 (gulp) sacks given up in 2007 were Clausen, a true freshman.

Finally, there is offensive line experience. This became somewhat of a hot stat over the summer, after the Wall Street Journal did an analysis of starts returning for every team's OL. You can see here that Iowa and ND are in the top 5 nationally among major conference schools.

Three weeks and counting til football!

Tonight's Pitching Matchup

vs.

Of course, they will both be wearing different uniforms.

I'm really looking forward to this matchup of cool personalities I rooted for a few years ago. Technically I went to school with Shark ... his first two years were my first two years there. Of course, it wasn't until 2005 that he had his breakout season.

And Petey. He has had a fantastic career, including the great 2004 World Series win with Boston (who were, up until that point, the Cubs of the American League). Then he ended up in New York the same time we were there, and we cheered him on as a Met.

Who knows if it will be a competitive game, but it should be fun to watch. Go Cubs, Go Pedro!

Predicting Won-Loss Records (The Easy Way)

Picking a team's final record in summertime, much less right before the season starts, is tricky business. But there are shortcuts.

One proxy for Won-Loss expectations could be the team's ranking in the Steele preseason poll, which takes into account talent, schedule, and is intended to predict how teams will finish the year (as opposed to a normative model, which is purely statistical, according to Rivalry, Esq.--who breaks out grad school terminology on a blog, anyway??!) . Of course, this won't work perfectly, especially for the teams at the top (it's unrealistic to expect Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, USC and LSU to all go undefeated or 11-1). But broadly speaking, you should be expected to beat the teams ranked lower, and lose to teams ranked higher. Assume the vagaries of injuries and upsets balance each other out, and you have an expected W-L record.

In 2008, Steele ranked Iowa #34. Three opponents were ranked higher (PSU #10, Wisky #21, Pitt #25) and nine lower (Northwestern the closest at #49) for an expected 9-3. The reality was 8-4, with "upsets" (in the Steele preseason sense, not necessarily the literal gameday sense) of Wisky and PSU, a mild upset (they were in the ballpark, rankwise) by NWU and shocking losses to MSU and Illinois (sorry Sarah, that shit should NOT have happened). Given how close all those losses were (4 by 12 points total), 9-3 was a good guess.

Please recover from your stroke. Please don't pick Iowa if Gameday comes to town.

Now look at ND. Steele put them at #19, coming off a 3-9 year (ballsy). Only USC was ranked higher and an expected/definite loss, for an expected 10-1 record. Unfortunately, mild upsets by Pitt (#25) and UNC (#38) plus shocks by MSU, BC and Syracuse dropped them to 6-6. Iowa did about as well as Steele thought; ND drastically under-performed but had the potential to match the prediction.

Not from 2008. Don't care. Awesome picture. Want to see more of this in '09.

How does this look back help us put 2009 in focus? Steele is high on both my teams, with the Hawks at #20 and the Irish at #7. Iowa would be expected to lose to Penn St. (#5) and A State University in Ohio (#10), but four other opponents lurk in the Top 50: Mich State (#29), Wisky (#38), Arizona (#40) and Meechigan (#48). Plus, those four highest-ranked conference teams are all on the road for us. So a "raw" record of 10-2 might be expected in theory, but four conference road losses and a possible ILTCMTS* means 7-5 isn't unreasonable either.

Notre Dame, near the top of the pack, doesn't have much breathing room. Southern Cal is still above them (#3), and only four teams could reasonably cause trouble: Pitt #23, Mich St. #29, Nevada #35, Meechigan #48. That's a 10-1 record, particularly considering we get Nevada (our home opener) and Michigan (probably breaking in a true freshman QB) early, Pitt loses stud RB McCoy, and we get USC at home. The giant question, though: Is Phil over-ranking the Irish?

Finally, a quick look at my favorite MAC team: Frank Solich is three games under .500 (23-26) at Ohio, and I think it would be great for him to get back to even. That means an 8-5 season (7-5 with bowl win, or more likely 8-4 with a bowl loss) would do it.

How does he get there? Using the schedule proxy system, Ohio at #74 is looking at almost-certain wins against Northern Illinois (#96), Buffalo (101), Kent State (106), Ball State (108), Bowling Green (111), North Texas (116), (Fake) Miami (117), and Cal Poly SLO (I-AA school). That's eight right there. Put aside for a moment the fact that Solich has averaged just under six wins a year in his Athens tenure ... we're being lazy, remember? (And if you're asking yourself, wait, both of last year's division champions are ranked in triple digits? ... yes, yes, they are. Welcome to the MAC.)

Temple (#86) and Akron (87) are in the ballpark, and UConn at #73 is a dead heat where you have to give an edge to the home team, particularly early in the year and with a senior quarterback returning.

One of two dudes is going to be the senior quarterback I refer to. While Theo Scott (being played here by wide receiver #7 LaVon Brazill) is probably more talented, how do you root against #8 Boo Jackson? And that hair! (photo credit: TM)

Only Tennessee (40) is a near-certain loss ... but no less an authority on Volunteer football than Scott Miller said they won't be very good at all this year. His direct quote: "We will lose a LOT this season." An early lead by a motivated Bobcat squad could take the fans out of the game, much like the the Ohio State game in 2008. So even with a TCLTCTS** or two thrown in there, the schedule looks favorable for another winning Bobcat season.

If you want to play this game with another ranking list, wait a few weeks for the New York Times list to be complete, and look up your own team. Or of course, buy yourself a copy of Steele.

* Inexplicable Loss That Causes Me to Throw Shit

** Tantalizingly Close Loss That Causes TM to Swear

Speak Up Against Morons

It's not nice to pick on stupid people. Protecting and respecting the weak is one thing that separates us from the rest of the brutes in the animal kingdom.

But it's also ethical to point out dangerous situations that could hurt a great number of people, like calling the police and electric company about a downed power line. In today's case, the latter imperative outweighs the former consideration.

Sunday there was a change of power, when GOP darling Sarah Palin quit her job before finishing her first term as governor. In her parting speech, one that surely had George Washington gritting his wooden teeth, she threw a dart at the media:

“One other thing for the media, our new governor has a very nice family, too, so leave his kids alone,” said the not-quite one-term head of state.

Former Mayor Palin got several things wrong here. First of all, being governor of a small population state does not attract media attention. When she was head of state, her kids were left alone. No one had heard of her, much less her brood. However, running for vice president of the United States, with a light political resume and a 72-year old (on Election Day 2008) running mate, does draw media attention.

Before you (you, Sarah, not the media) made the decision to run for such a public position, one that draws intense scrutiny under the best circumstances, did you discuss the repercussions with your family? I mean, this guy did.

And the media would have been fine to leave your kids alone, except for the fact that one of your kids (not the media, Sarah, but your own unusually-named child) made the adult decision to draw attention to herself. The concept of irony may be lost on someone who reads "all" the newspapers, but the pregnant teenager of a politician who preaches no sex ed in schools and abstinence as the only option ...

"My Mommy is a moron!"

The danger I mentioned comes in the reaction of the audience she directed that comment to (most clearly not the media, who have* no desire to dissect Gov. Parnell's family life). It is the "red" audience: red meat issue-voracious, redneck culturally, red state geographically. They tune out or don't understand the complexities of the Palin situation, noticing only that she ripped off a snappy line at a convenient target. That promotes fear, and distrust, and a breakdown in communication (either this or this), and ultimately weakens our nation.

Sam encourages you to stay vigilant against demagoguery or anything else that harms intelligent discourse in our country.

* -- Occasional proper grammar use is at the sole discretion of the blog proprietor.

2000 Words: Presidential First Pitch Form

Who do you want as a confident, athletic, "bring the heat" leader of the free world when throwing out the first pitch: this guy ...


or this guy?

Recruitin'

Buried in the back of Phil Steele's yearbook (it does seem unfair to call it merely a magazine) are several articles for the curious and statistically-minded fan. These can be an opportunity to soak up Phil's inimitable writing style, or they can be fascinating fodder for blog articles.

Jay from BGS has discovered this too, and his Steele-inspired piece proved my folly of sitting on a good idea just because I was trying to space out my football-oriented entries. Well forget that, here's my article on recruiting.

* * *

While Phil says he doesn't follow recruiting per se, he does subscribe to multiple services, and uses their input in calculating his PS numbers. Teams can bounce up in a particularly good year, based on a strong class in-state, for example, or UTTER FAIL by nearby programs, like 2005 when Iowa vaulted to #6 based on Illinois and Notre Dame firing Turner and Willingham. (For context, this year they were #42.) Teams can fall off the map for a year, too, but overall you'd think it would be hard to remain consistently in the Top 10.

In reality, seven schools have been in the Top 10 four years straight, and two more made it in three of four years. Since recruiting is the lifeblood of a program, does good recruiting correlate with wins?

First let's look at who consistently dominates the rankings:

Team	2006	2007	2008	2009
Southern Cal	1	1	4	3
ND	2	5	1	7
Texas	3	4	10	8
Michigan	4	9	9	9
Florida	5	2	5	6
Georgia	7	10	8	5
Ohio State	8	7	2	4
Oklahoma	10	17	6	15
LSU	11	3	13	2

Since I used four years of recruiting rankings, I wanted to look at four years of games, even though I realize the recruits of 2006 weren't on campus in 2005.

FLA
2008: 13-1
2007: 9-4
2006: 13-1
2005: 9-2*
* Was really 9-3, Alabama had to vacate a win due to a textbook scandal

MICH
2008: 3-9
2007: 9-4
2006: 11-2
2005: 7-5

GEO
2008: 10-3
2007: 11-2
2006: 9-4
2005: 10-3

ND
2008: 7-6
2007: 3-9
2006: 10-3
2005: 9-3

TEXAS
2008: 12-1
2007: 10-3
2006: 10-3
2005: 13-0

THE UNIVERSITY OF THE OHIO STATE
2008: 10-3
2007: 11-2
2006: 12-1
2005: 10-2

OKLAHOMA
2008: 12-2
2007: 11-3
2006: 11-3
2005: 8-4

LOUISIANA STATE
2008: 8-5
2007: 12-2
2006: 11-2
2005: 11-2

SOUTHERN CAL
2008: 12-1
2007: 11-2
2006: 11-2
2005: 12-1

What conclusions can we draw? I see a few common threads on this list of schools. One is consistency in the coaching regime. Look at the tenures: Mack Brown entering his 12th year; Stoops his 11th; Carroll, Tressel and Richt their 9th. Miles and Meyer are entering their 5th, but the SEC guys have been much more stable than the Prozac-popping ride Irish fans have been on. Michigan just made a change, but before him they had three guys in almost 40 years. That's more stability in the top job than Pope (ironic that they are historically anti-Catholic).

And the two schools that just missed my cutoff are Penn State and Florida State, D-I's two longest-tenured coaches (Joe Pa entering his 44th, Bowden his 34th in Tallahassee). Notre Dame is on the low end, with Charlie entering his fifth year.

Another is the ability to overcome the occasional bad year. There is almost no way LSU loses five games again this year, based on all that talent they've compiled. Likewise with Michigan ... expect them to get better quickly. Look at Georgia: nine wins is a "down" year for Richt. And ND? Erratic, with a bad year causing a hangover the next year.

Combining those two points, you get consistency in the record.

The other main takeaway: what the hell has Notre Dame been doing wrong? Look at those four-year winning percentages:

USC....0.8846
TEX....0.8654
FLA....0.8462
OSU....0.8431
LSU....0.7925
OKLA...0.7778
GEO....0.7692
MICH...0.6000
ND.....0.5800

Everyone with consistent Top 10 recruiting has a .750 or better winning percentage, except, ironically, the two winningest programs in college football history.

ND has many problems, and one blog article, no matter how persuasively written or how suave the author, cannot address those off-the-field factors*. But this analysis shows that from a Jimmys and Joes perspective, there is no reason why the Irish can't produce results like their recruiting peers, year in and year out.

---

* I'm not oblivious to issues of Midwestern weather, academics, 85-scholarship limit, expansion of television access to smaller programs, parietals, etc. They just are not the focus here. Let's prove we belong on the same field, and discuss those topics another time.

As Close As I'll Ever Get to Twitter

I got off the Clark bus tonight, heading home after having dinner with a friend in LP.

And Elton John was playing "Tiny Dancer" at Wrigley Field.

So that was pretty cool. But not as freaking awesome as THIS: (click for larger)

Attack of the Bedbugs!

(Two titular punctuation marks in one day!)

Anyway, it's confirmed: we have bugs.


For several days now, my one-time co-author suspected something more serious than mosquitoes was biting her: large red welts surrounded her itchier-than-normal marks. She zeroed in on bedbugs as a theory, but I was suspicious: if so, why wasn't I getting bit?*

She finally found what she believed to be an actual bug sighting late Saturday, and called the landlady on Sunday. On Monday the landlady called the exterminators and relayed our situation.

The exterminator came today and sprayed everything in the apartment. They did find bedbugs, so we know definitively. But: now there is a thin layer of the chemical spray residue (allegedly safe for humans and pets) over everything. Floors. Tables, couches and chairs. My laptop, nightguard, and Steele. Even inside the closed drawers of our dressers. If I wasn't so lazy and technically incompetent, I'd take and transfer photos of the mess so you could see what we're living with.

Them bastards.

The worst part is that to kill off any remaining bugs or eggs or larvae, we have to leave this layer of chemical residue on all the surfaces in the apartment for FIVE DAYS. I can tolerate the odor all right (it kinda smells like a furniture factory, a pungent chemical scent), but I also don't stay here all day. So TM and the cat are going to Ohio for a few days to get away from it, leaving me home alone with a frozen pizza and the caking of dust everywhere.

It'll be a bit nutty around here for a few days. Bear with us, and please feel free to invite me over to your house for dinner or drinks or something ... I'll entertain all options that don't involve the stench of insecticide.

---

* -- The answer: I was getting bit, I just didn't have as many bites, and didn't react as violently as she did.

Who Will Go Undefeated This Year?

Going undefeated in college football, even in a season of only 12 games, is extremely difficult. Rare is the season like 2004 when three teams finished undefeated (Auburn, Southern Cal, Oklahoma). More plausible is a scenario like 2007, when LSU got to the championship game with two losses (although to be fair, that was the first time that had happened).

To illustrate the improbability, let's take a quick look at a Top 10 team (according to Steele) expected to be favored in up to 11 of 12 games. Just because Notre Dame could or should win all its games doesn't mean it will. Remember that a team with a 90% probability of winning each of 12 games has a 28% chance of going undefeated, not 90%. That's because all 12 independent outcomes have to occur a certain way, meaning the math is .90 x .90 x.90 etc. (Statistics again on this blog. Who knew?)

I assigned an estimated probability of victory to each of ND's games. You can quibble over the margins but the point remains: despite being the likely favorite against everyone except Southern Cal, ND has only a 2% chance of an undefeated season, not 73%.

Likelihood of Going Undefeated

Game Number	Chance We'll Win	Opponent
1	0.90	Nevada
2	0.65	at Michigan
3	0.80	Michigan State
4	0.75	at Purdue
5	0.75	Washington
6	0.50	USC
7	0.55	Boston College
8	0.90	Washington State
9	0.85	Navy
10	0.60	at Pittsburgh
11	0.70	Connecticut
12	0.85	at Stanford
	Average: 0.7333	Season Total: 1.98%

But that's just an example to ask the question: who will go undefeated in 2009? Probably no one, if history is a guide, but who has a chance? Phil Steele has an idea: he ran the numbers through his Power Ratings system. (No, I don't know how he calculates the ratings--it's part of the proprietary magic that makes Steele Steele.)

For context, look at Phil's list of potential undefeated in 2008: Florida, Ohio State, Southern Cal, Oklahoma, Georgia, Missouri, West Virginia, South Florida, Clemson, Utah, BYU, Virginia Tech, Tulsa, Ball State. You might say that any schmuck could look at the Gators, Sooners and Trojans and say there's a chance they could run the table. (The fact they did not says more about the truth of my first paragraph than failings of the predictions.) What about a 10-4 Tulsa team (in 2007) that lost 3 of those 4 by 19+ points? What about a 7-6 Ball State team that did in fact go 12-0 before falling in their conference championship? How about Utah improving from 9-4 to 12-0?

In the 2009 magazine, Phil lists 17 schools that he thinks has a chance (i.e., one of more of his Power Ratings says so) to go undefeated: Florida, Texas, Southern Cal, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Alabama, California, Illinois, Rutgers, Texas Christian, Boise State, Southern Mississippi.

We can winnow that 17 down to a max of 10 possible undefeateds:

• Ole Miss and Alabama play each other; a perfect SEC West champ would face an undefeated Florida in the conference title game. (minus 2)
• Texas and Oklahoma face off. (minus 1)
• One will be eliminated from the Southern Cal/ND/Cal mix, because USC plays both. (minus 1)
• The three Big Ten teams play round robin. (minus 2)
• Pitt and Rutgers play each other. (minus 1)

And Virginia Tech plays 'Bama to start the season, so that could get it down to nine. And it's hard to see Cal AND the Irish both beating Southern Cal, so you're down to eight, and so on.

Of course, the vagaries of injuries, turnovers and last second field goals make going undefeated nearly impossible. Phil doesn't say they will, only that they could. But keep an eye on these teams to see if they can pull it off.

Real American Heroes 2009

While I try to figure out where the last three weeks went, it's time to take a moment to celebrate America. Today is our 233rd birthday, and I'd like to acknowledge the Real American Heroes that make this country great.

Thomas Jefferson (from Virginia). For writing the Declaration of Independence. Go read it right now.


John Locke (from Tustin, California). For originally espousing all the ideas that Jefferson stole in writing the Declaration of Independence.


Windell Middlebrooks (from California I believe). For living, and encouraging, the High Life.

"Step aside mon ami."

David Hoffman and Ben Joravsky. Apparently the only two men in town willing to stand up to Mayor Richard M. Daley, the most autocratic mayor since this guy. More vigilance and attention to the dysfunctional, corrupt, wasteful form of government here will open more eyes to the fact that we cannot afford, and simply do not deserve, the Olympics.

This is Hoffman. I assume Joravsky remains unphotographed for his personal safety.

Buddy Guy. Born in Louisiana, rocking his adopted hometown of Chicago today, on Independence Day.

And rocking this pink shirt, too.

Barack Obama (Chicago, via Hawaii). For many things: repairing the damage done to our nation's image after eight years of destruction by the Bush administration, for starters. But to make this list: he wrote an excuse note for a Green Bay child named Kennedy, who skipped school to hear the president speak.

Obama: Making it cool again for kids to want to grow up to be president since 2009.

The Mouse executive who made the decision to pull this blowhard off college football broadcasts. Next, can we get rid of the guy with the biggest Cool Name-to-Awful Talent gap on the planet?

Craig Finn (Minneapolis). For writing the songs that rock my world. For giving voice to Midwesterners in New York City. It's great to see you back in a bar band, baby.

(photo taken by TM, 6/19/09 ... more on this concert soon.)

It's our birthday, Americans ... if it's hot enough where you are, enjoy a popsicle.


You'll notice I didn't mention this guy or this guy ... definitely heroes, but too obvious.

Absence, Partially Explained

Don't ya hate it when a great, funny, engaging blog goes on hiatus unannounced? Yeah, me too. However, I think I have a pretty damn good excuse. Lookit all this stuff that's been going on:

• Crushing gloomy cold and rain!
• Ribfest!
• Ravinia!
• Sarah Borges!
• Starting work!
• New kitty! (not ours...)
• Mosh pit!
• Sibling visit!
• Housewarming party!
• A rock your face off performance by The Hold Steady!
• Resume writing!
• 10-Player League baseball!
• Roller coasters!
• Canadians!
• Blood donation!
• Wilco (the album) featuring Wilco (the song) by Wilco (the band)!

As you can see, that doesn't leave a lot of time for blogging. And this list doesn't even mention reading (and digesting) many of the 328 pages that are JAMPACKED WITH INFORMATION in Steele. I'll try to get caught up as much as I can in the next few days, starting with the first few (oldest) items.

Drink Wilkins Coffee

... or else a primitive, 1960's-era Kermit will have you shot in the fucking face.


Thanks to Another Damned Blogger, who found the clip here.



In other Muppet news: apparently there's a TV show called 30 Rockfeller Plaza, clearly a behind-the-scenes look at the NBC Television Network. Yeah, well, they stole their show idea from the Muppets. (Obviously, I found this at BHGP.)

I will use any excuse whatsoever to run this picture again.

Finally, in non-Muppet news: Does anyone else from Iowa read this here and NOT think of Johnny Gosch?

The Notre Dame 2009 Football Preview

Last year, to celebrate the day Phil Steele’s yearbook comes out (aka Steelemas), I wrote a long essay about Notre Dame’s 2008 schedule and how it boded well for an improved season. Today, Steelemas Eve 2009, I already have my Steele but in honor of the day, here is my look at the upcoming season.

It's that time of the year again.

The key themes of Notre Dame football 2009 are high expectations and a ‘the future is now’ mentality. I’m going to key in on three main factors for this: the schedule, the talent on the two-deep chart and the impatience of the fanbase, born of recent history.

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Schedule. The sked was the main focus of last year’s preview, and while it is not the key factor for me in 2009, it deserves mention. I start with a look at last year's schedule as a comparison point.

Notre Dame 2008 Opponents

LY	Bowl LY?	Team	W/L	Final Record	Bowl?	Better?
4-8	No	S. Diego St.	W	2-10	No	No
9-4	Yes	Mich.	W	3-9	No	No
7-6	Yes	@Mich. St	L	9-4	Yes	Yes
8-5	Yes	Purd.	W	4-8	No	No
4-8	No	Stanford	W	5-7	No	--
4-8	No	@No. Caro.	L	8-5	Yes	Yes
4-9	No	@Wash.	W	0-12	No	No
5-7	No	Pitt	L	9-4	Yes	Yes
11-3	Yes	@Bost. Coll.	L	9-5	Yes	No
8-5	Yes	Navy	W	8-5	Yes	--
2-10	No	Syracuse	L	3-9	No	--
11-2	Yes	@ So. Cal.	L	12-1	Yes	Yes
77-75	six			72-79	six	Nah.

Italics = new coach in 2008.

(Here "Last Year" means 2007.) We knew 2008 would be easier than 2007, and the numbers bear that out. I’m not going to give credit to Stanford for “improving” from 4-8 to 5-7, or Cuse going from 2-10 to 3-9, particularly when the coach got fired.

ND’s 2008 opponents, when it was all over, went seven games under .500, and if you exclude the USC juggernaut, the other 11 squads were 18 games under .500 (60-78). In other words, ND 2008 faced a slate that was coming off a cumulatively mediocre 2007 and managed to do even worse. The Irish should have cleaned up, and it’s clear that ND under-achieved against Navy, Pitt, Syracuse and had the UNC game in hand.

Now look at the 2009 lineup.

Notre Dame 2009 Opponents

LY Record	Bowl LY?	Team	Result
7-6	Yes	Nevada	??
3-9	No	at Michigan	??
9-4	Yes	Michigan State	??
4-8	No	at Purdue	??
0-12	No	Washington	??
12-1	Yes	USC	??
9-5	Yes	Boston College	??
2-11	No	Washington State	??
8-5	Yes	Navy	??
9-4	Yes	at Pittsburgh	??
8-5	Yes	Connecticut	??
5-7	No	at Stanford	??
76-77	seven		??

Italics = new coach in 2009.

One more bowl team, but two putrid Pac-10 teams (two of the worst in Div. I-A, in fact), two struggling Big Ten teams, a big pile of unimpressive to mediocre, and just three legitimate Top 25’ers in MSU, BC and Southern Cal. Overall score: Eminently beatable.

Or think about it this way: the nine repeating members of the sked from last year went 59-55. Those schools rotating out (SDSU, UNC, Cuse) finished 13-24. Those rotating in (Nevada, Wash St., UConn) were 17-22. Any way you cut it: this is not a murderer’s row.

I want to see more of this.

Talent. The bigger issue, then, should be the on-field performance by this assemblage of talent. Although it’s been written about all over the Internet, it was my friend Steve who helped me see the quality and depth of talent on the roster. I don’t think I’ve seen the top-two guys at basically every position be so talented and ready to contribute in my short tenure as a fan.

Acquiring Steele helped put it into focus. Look at the PS#s (“Phil Steele number” is his method of judging talent coming out of high school) on the two-deep roster at the skill positions:

QB: PS#5, PS#5
RB: PS#13, PS#9, PS#2
WR: PS#8, PS#31
WR: PS#2, PS#10
WR: PS#27, PS#9
TE: PS#2, PS#2

The offensive line isn’t as impressive, but still some great numbers:

C: PS#24, PS#39
RG: PS#14, PS#13
LG: PS#28, PS#58
RT: PS#1 (Sam Young), PS#19
LT: PS#53, PS#18

The defense has PS#1’s in Steve Filer and Manti Te’o and a PS#2 in Darrin Walls, returning from a year in exile. Bottom line: the talent is there.

Also want to see more of this.

Impatience. Which brings us to the third factor: the ability of the coaching staff to finally put it all together on the field in Year Five of the Weis era. A brief history:

• 2005: Brady Quinn, Darius Walker, Jeff Samardzija (I spelled that without looking it up), BCS game, 9-3.
• 2006: same crew, BCS game, 10-3.
• 2007: everyone leaves, Weis’ inexperience as a college coach is exposed, fundamentals are awful, historic loss to Navy, 3-7.
• 2008: talented recruits begin arriving/developing, still an awful loss (Syracuse), first bowl win in ages, 7-6.

The complaints about the hangover effect of Willingham’s awful recruiting, while I believe were valid in 2007 and '08 to an extent, are gone. The team is stacked with capable athletes. Weis has the players he wants and the coaching staff he wants. Most of the key players have been in the program for three years (Clausen, Tate, Young, Kyle McCarthy, Brian Smith). To quote the coach: “9-3 is not good enough.” Or another quote: No Excuses. (For a discussion of whether 9-3 really is good enough for this team, see here.)

Last year the question was: we'll be better, but how much? This year the question is: will the won-loss record (based on my three factors) be as good as it SHOULD be?

GOT MY STEELE

WOOOOOOOOOO!

Thanks to the lovely TM (who stopped by the Clark/Diversey Borders today) it is, to quote Orson Swindle, "in hand, motherfuckers," two days before the official onsale date.

I've always loved this photo. Spencer's caption is: "Phil Steele’s College Football 2006 Preview, shortly after floating into Orson’s hand from on high."

It's even the Midwest regional cover, with Clausen, Pryor and a Michigan running back.

Here's the quick overview: ND at #7, and #9 in the Power Poll. Iowa at #20, and #16 in the Power Poll. So Steele thinks ND will end the season slightly better than their talent would predict, based on an easy slate, and Iowa will be hurt by their four tough road games (PSU, OSU, Wisky, MSU). He's got Penn St. first in the conference, then OSU and Illinois (WTF?!?!) tied at second, then Iowa.

And, because I haven't used the "MAC Attack" tag in a while: Phil likes the Bobcats to win the MAC East, saying they were "much better than (their) final '08 record and this season will fly under the radar" as his No. 2 Most Improved Team.

Full report Tuesday.

Phil gives his own magazine a thumbs up.

You're Never Too Old to Learn New Words

Everybody thinks they are average or above-average in certain categories, but until you take Statistics, you really don't understand the concept of standard distribution in a specific population.

For example, I think I have a pretty large vocabulary, what with all the writin', and the crossword-puzzle solvin' and readin' books without pictures and all that. But in a few-day span recently, I came across the same new word twice. One was in this book, written by a British guy about a British guy in London. The other was in this article about a British guy in Paris. So I figured, maybe it's a British/European thing.

So I emailed the author of the Esquire piece, Tom Chiarella, asking if he was British, figuring he was an Esquire big shot and I'd never hear back. To my surprise, Tom wrote me a nice, long note, confirming he is not British, but did live in London for a while, and picked up the word from a European author.

Anyway, we're big fans of words and rambling essays about using big words here at TMMPF. So, the word is "tumescence" and if you don't know what it means, uh, I guess you can look it up.

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PS: Regarding the setup of the article, that Chiarella gave Clive Owen his own hard-earned cash to bet the ponies, Tom wrote to me: "it really was my own money. I've had a hard time getting anyone to believe me, including Clive."

PPS: I thought about creating a new tag for this post. But then I realized, we've already got 49 tags, and when am I ever going to use again the "British term for boner" tag??

The Committee to Unify Ridiculous And Contrived Acronymed Organizations

From the newswire. --Ed.

Legions of non-profit and activist organizations have a new lobbying group to draw attention to their missions.

Announced earlier this week, the Committee to Unify Ridiculous And Contrived Acronymed Organizations, or Curacao, aims to help socially oriented programs with odd names further their efforts. Up to 100 groups with names like the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE), a Tufts University program to promote political engagement of young people, are expected to benefit.

"Many of our groups struggle to gain awareness in the public eye," said Curacao director Eduaro Jones, despite clunky names like the Marriage Appreciation Training Uplifting Relationship Education (MATURE) project in Georgia, a federally funded abstinence program, or the Women in Need Growing Stronger (WINGS) services for homeless and abused women.

"Each of these groups deserves a wider audience for their important causes and their clever, tongue-twisting acronyms," continued Jones, "whether it's the SUDS (Stop Underage Drinking and Sales) task force in Indiana, or Jim Abbott's disability advocacy group PITCH (Proving Individuals with Talent Can Help)."

Spokespersons from the represented agencies and programs lauded the national Curacao effort. "I know PILLARS specifically will benefit from Curacao's leadership," said Jim Westham, referring to Peers Inspiring, Listening, Learning, and Responsible Socializing, a University of Notre Dame student group dedicated to a safe and responsible college lifestyle, where he is director. "I thought 'PILLARS' was pretty good, but 'Curacao,' I mean, wow."

"This is particularly important for social services organizations," Curacao's Jones said. "If you want to draw attention to your cause, no matter how useful or trivial, selecting a word that spells out something awkward is the only truly successful way to achieve that."

--30--

2009 Chicago Summer Festival Calendar

Better late than not at all, here is this year's Chicago street festival guide.

Let's start it on a positive jam, man, and talk about some encouraging developments. North Center's Ribfest, one of my personal favorites, has extended to a third day and will begin Friday night. Fitzgerald's American Music Festival has a powerhouse line-up: Joe Ely, Jon Dee Graham, Tarbox Ramblers, Over the Rhine, "long tall" Marcia Ball, Robbie Fulks, Shemekia Copeland, BeauSoleil and Carrie Rodriguez are all worthy of headlining. The only challenge is having to choose between those Americans and this American on Independence Day weekend.

Make Sam proud. Go see some American music.

I'm encouraged by the new Metronome Chicago festival: four stages of rock, punk, electronic and folk, all booked by local experts, plus a fifth stage of music from local schools.

A couple other quick updates: the Country Music Fest is moving back to Grant Park after being by Soldier Field in 2008. ... Light-rock station WTMX ("The Mix") is booking Jammin' at the Zoo this year, leading to this ultra-bland lineup: Sister Hazel/Josh Kelley; Matt Nathanson/Brett Dennen; Five for Fighting. I'm not going, but I did leave it on the list because hearing music at the zoo is a cool experience. But please XRT, please book cool bands next year. ... Pitchfork didn't make the spreadsheet because a) I'm not going, and b) no one interesting is playing. ... I want to plug St. Michael's Celebration: not only do they have Freddy Jones Band, but check out their poster: the first five sponsors are alcohol and rock 'n roll. Alas, we already have plans that night.

Apparently no aspect of life is immune from the economic doldrums, including the festival scene. Some changes I noticed from last year: Blues Fest has been shortened by one day (thanks, Mayor Daley). Pizza Fest and Wine Fest (the one in North Center, not the one in Old Town) won't be back. Summer on Southport got canceled for a different reason: the Cubs will have three concerts this year and they couldn't find a feasible date.

And in my perspective, the economy has affected the musical bookings as well. This blog's co-authors noticed more local artists than usual, and fewer national/travelling bands. This could be a chicken-or-egg situation: as record labels cut back on budgets, signed bands can't afford to travel as far or as much. With that absence, concert promoters look to the local stable of artists to fill those empty stages.

Here are my official disclaimers. One: This list has a North Side bias. The official City of Chicago website lists twice as many festivals as I have here. But let's face it: you probably aren't going to Ghanafest on 55th Street, and if you are, God bless ya, you can find that information on your own. (If you're serious you could look here or here or here.) In reality, you're going to go to the same festivals I am--the ones on the North Side you can either walk to, el to or cab to. You'll have a beer or two at these festivals and you won't want to drive.

Two: I do not guarantee any of the information here. It was collected in early May, and a lot can change between now and festival time. Check the website to see if they've changed the band lineup or the cover.

Three: I think I know which one will be great (Ribfest, Taste), which ones will be insanely crowded (Lincoln Ave, Taste), which ones will have the best people watching (Randolph, Hideout), and so on. But I just don't know. So ... "Caveat Festor" ... let the festivalgoer beware.

The spreadsheet is here. To view it online, go here. NEW THIS YEAR, I've added a smiley sun logo to the festivals that I can personally endorse from experience.

Finally, local band Hello Dave has released a great summer soundtrack tune, appropriately (if not creatively) named "Summer in Chicago." Click here to listen to Hello Dave's "Summer in Chicago."

Enjoy the summer everybody!

Tift Merritt, onstage at the 2008 Country Music Festival.

1000 Words: Victory

2000 words, actually. What victory looks like:

What victory looks like:


Yes, that is the "ram stiffarming cheerleader" photo in the background. What victory tastes like: I'm actually drinking one right now, and I can confirm that Blue Star is a tasty wheat beer, especially with the requisite lemon wedge. It has a full taste without feeling heavy in the mouth or gut. Viva les Tar Heels!

"I love the smell of North Coast Blue Star in the morning*. It smells like ... victory."

Speaking of victory, congratulations to commenter "Don" (I assume that's Donald) for caring enough to use Google to identify the quotes from last week. The songs are "Across the Line" by Scott Miller (2001) and "Supernatural Superserious" by R.E.M. (2007). I say this because I would be surprised to learn that Don's music collection spans both records. At any rate, congrats. Maybe next time there will be a real prize ... like Blue Star!

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* -- MPF studiously avoids drinking alcohol in the morning, lest being branded an alcoholic, even during these days of unemployment. Everyone knows that if you wait til a minute after 12 noon, then you're fine.