P6 2012: Conference Play Starts in Earnest

Did you get outside? As promised, we avoided sitting in front of the TV all morning because Iowa was on at 11am, and, you know, it's Iowa 2012. But after the apple festival (I brought along an orange just to make a comparison), we caught the end of the game including the Iowa players rushing the sideline to reclaim Floyd. Even in this cluster of a season, that was nice to see.

Elsewhere in the house: Notre Dame had a bye. Next week's opponent, Real Miami, had a nice comeback to beat NC State. Should be a fun game next Saturday night. Ohio was sluggish but finally put away Massachusetts, a new member of the MAC. TM was watching online, so I couldn't see what was going on but could hear her reaction. I heard so many "gyahh"s and "aw geeesh"s I thought she was channelling Ron Santo.

Poll action: After Washington took down Stanford on Thursday night, there were close calls Saturday but no real upsets.  West Virginia, Georgia, Ohio State, Boise State, TCU, Texas and Oregon State all won by a single score (8 points or less), and only the Buckeyes and Mountaineers played ranked teams. South Carolina and LSU looked sluggish in eventually beating lesser foes.

TM says that I complain every week that I had a bad week picking games. Week 4 was definitely not the case--I finished 19-9 against the spread. This week I came back down to earth: 9 right, 12 wrong.

Out of the poll: Michigan State (2nd loss); Boise State (won ugly); Baylor (gave up 70 points). Hello, Washington. Welcome back, UCLA (but we don't care).

So with those three dropping out, that makes room for someone new in the poll: Northwestern. Now I've ranted about Northwestern and their schedule before, so I'll make this year's version brief. Yes, they should be applauded for scheduling multiple BCS teams in their non-conference slate.

But Northwestern managed to beat the worst team in the SEC (Vanderbilt), perhaps the worst team in the Big East (Syracuse, but it's so hard to tell with the Big East), the second-worst team in the ACC (Boston College is bad but they're not Duke), the worst team in the Big Ten (Indiana, who lost their starting QB a couple weeks ago and still stayed within a couple touchdowns on the road) and a I-AA cupcake on their way to 5-0. As usual, they've played NO ONE with a pulse. Their only road game was at Syracuse's cavernous Carrier Dome, where Northwestern probably felt at home playing in front of so many empty seats. This week they play at resurgent Penn State, and I'm picking the Nitts no matter how big the spread.  In conclusion: Northwestern still sucks; moving on.

Biggest gainer: When nobody really loses, nobody has a chance to move up. The biggest point gain was a whopping 3, by Washington (unranked to 23) followed by a couple 2s, Ohio State and Clemson. Michigan State and Stanford tanked, so woe to you if that's your C/E groupings.

In such a quiet week, though, "Dix Pix Six" found a way to climb 7 points, since he had two of those three big gainers. Average score game-wide: 57.3, down from 59.5 last week.

Enough jibber jabber, who's winning?

Jack Shepard, I mean, "Let's do this thing" had a 14-point lead last week. Thanks to Stanford's nose dive, his score was cut to 97 points. A not-quite-one-year-old near Cleveland and a high school buddy are hot on his heels with 94 points. Top child: "Thomas the Train." Top dog: "Four legs and a cloud of dust." Top kitty: "Mr. Q." (Currently sitting on the cat pedestal, looking smug and/or sleepy.) As always, standings are here.

Will I need to find a new picture next week? Will something more exciting happen this Saturday? Will Iowa remain undefeated in the Big Ten? Always exciting! (except for Week 5 of course).

Today's Gamewatch Advice: Go Outside?

A couple weeks ago, I looked at the slate of games, deemed it uninteresting, and then watched as four Top 25'ers took nosedives against lesser competition. Not saying that can't happen again,  but I look at today's slate and can't recommend you scheduling your day around the football action.

First off, seven of the Top 25 teams have a bye: No 7, 10, 11, 13, 16, 21 and 23. In addition, No. 8 played Thursday night (and lost, sorry to the 19 of you with Stanford). Of the 17 remaining, LSU plays a I-AA school, and most of the rest play basketball schools like Kentucky, Connecticut and Kansas or sorry competition like Colorado, Washington State and New Mexico.

The only games of note are Michigan State hosting Ohio State (affects 25 Pick Six teams) and Georgia vs. Tennessee, which isn't ranked, but Georgia represents a good measuring stick for the Vols.

So make sure you're home by 2:30 (and have two TVs) to watch the Big Ten and SEC matchups. Other than that ... it's supposed to be 75 degrees here today. We're going to an apple festival. What are you doing on this lovely fall day besides watching football?

P6 2012: It's the End of Week 4 and I Feel Fine

Update! The online scoreboard is fixed. See below.

Games watched: Kent State-Buffalo, kinda (Weds); Boise State-BYU (Thurs); Iowa-Central Michigan (2nd half only); Ohio State-UAB (2nd tv); Missouri-South Carolina; UCLA-Oregon State (2nd tv); LSU-Auburn (snippets); Notre Dame-Michigan; Kansas State-Oklahoma (2nd tv); Clemson-Florida State (snippets); Arizona-Oregon (until I fell asleep).

Things mostly went well yesterday. Notre Dame's defense played lights out vs. Michigan, Ohio moved to 4-0 and continues to gain votes in the AP poll, and I did well in my pick 'em game. Five of my Pick Six teams won, but since two of them have already fallen out, only three mattered. (My Pick Sixth has decided to abandon me.) LSU eked out a road win over Auburn, Florida destroyed Kentucky, and South Carolina continued Missouri's "Welcome to the SEC" tour. So yeah, pretty good Saturday. And, ahh, that appears to be all I can think of to talk about...

When in doubt, trust Prevail and Ride. 

What about the Pick Six? After last week's crazy upsets, there was only one major knockout. Oklahoma has a tendency lately to blow a major game here and there, so they got that out of the way early this year. The Sooners (ranked No. 6) were favored by two touchdowns at home over No. 15 Kansas State. The Wildcats have a reputation of playing cupcakes in the preseason and then getting a rude awakening in the conference. But K-State might be for real, because they easily beat Oklahoma, 24-19.

There were three other matchups of ranked vs. ranked: Florida State rallied to beat Clemson, 49-37. Oregon thumped Rich Rod's Arizona team 49-0. And of course, in the Game of the Week, Notre Dame finally decided to defend Denard Robinson for a full game and won, 13-6.

Manti Te'o had another awesome game. Fans wore leis to honor Manti, who is grieving the death of his grandmother and girlfriend, within 24 hours of each other last week. Photo from the South Bend Tribune. 

New teams in the poll: hello, Rutgers (no. 23, three points) and two guys you don't care about (Oregon State, vanquishers of Wisconsin and UCLA; and Baylor, who apparently found someone to play quarterback after RGIII).

Biggest gainer: K-State had the most prominent win, and thus made the biggest move in the poll: +8 points. Nobody else had an impressive win, so nobody else gained more than three points. (Oregon State debuted at No. 18, but like I said, they don't matter, because nobody picked them.) On the downside, though: there was plenty of plummeting. Michigan: took second loss, falling out and forfeiting those 8 points. (good riddance). Oklahoma: lose at home, go down 10 points, do not pass go, do not collect AP votes. Clemson: I warned you that this is the same team that gave up 70 points in their bowl game. Voters wised up, dropped them 7 points.

Three players gained 10 points this week: "The Chaplin Tacklers," "sadandbritish" and Mutchka (who, I have it on good authority, is jealous of all the attention that the houseguests are getting this weekend). Want to guess what they have in common?

I dare you to get through this entire video without laughing.

Enough jibber jabber, who's winning?

"Let's do this thing" gains four points to 105, and widens his lead to 14 points. He's only six points off a perfect pickset. His teams Texas and TCU don't play until Nov. 22 ... will someone overtake him before then?

Top kid: "Thomas the Train." Top dog: "Silly Milly." Top cat: "Mr. Q," the 2010 champion making his move!

Trivial fact: Notre Dame has held two Big Ten teams from the state of Michigan to nine points and zero touchdowns. Iowa, a Big Ten team, has held one MAC team from the state of Michigan to 32 points. (I found this picture on a Michigan blog, of all places.) 

MONDAY NIGHT EDIT!! It was brought to my attention that I failed to update the Googledoc last night. Thanks to astute player Sidney, lying in wait in 13th place, for catching that. 

Scores updated here. Team points updated here. I'll try to remember next week, if I haven't thrown anything heavy through my TV by 2:30 pm Central. 

P6 2012: Week 3 and Things Are Happening

Last week, you could be forgiven for not paying close attention to the Pick Six standings. There were some notable team plummets, but a lot of people stayed where they were in the standings.

But in college football, every week is special. Even though the cumulative score barely changed (59.4 to 59.3), we saw huge swings in fortunes.

Let's start with Saturday night's big winners, Stanford and Notre Dame. Stanford proved they are more than just Harbaugh and Luck (at least for now) by knocking off No. 2 Southern Cal. And the Irish rolled into Spartan Stadium and kept No. 10 Michigan State out of the end zone all night. The Cardinal jumped from 21 to 9; and the Irish from 20 to 11.

Who took advantage of the poll jumpers? 11 players went for Notre Dame and a whopping 19 for Stanford. Six players had both Stanford and Notre Dame, and they all gained a crapload of points. (Look for them with a double-digit green number in the far right column.)

On the down side, Virginia Tech went to hapless Pittsburgh and got killed. (Remember that Pitt lost to I-AA Youngstown State, then got thumped in a Thursday game at Cincinnati.)  The Hokies drop out of the Top 25 and lose 13 points in the process. The Stanford/ND victims were punished accordingly ... 15 players thought Southern Cal (-11 this week) would win the national championship, picking them out of the "A" bracket. 11 players have Virginia Tech, but only 7 have Michigan State (also down 11 this week).

Biggest gainer: It's a double winner. See below.

Enough jibber jabber, who's winning?

This is Jack Shepard from "Lost," getting ready to head out on a mission. If you remember the show, he'd usually end his pre-mission pep talks with "Let's do this" or "Let's do this thing".

With the one-two punch of ND and Stanford, plus additional gains from Georgia and Texas, "Let's do this thing" adds a huge 24 points, best of the week, to climb from ninth to first with an amazing 101 points.  I'm not sure anyone has ever broken 100 points in September. Congrats, man!

Top kid: "Thomas the Train". Top dog: "Silly Milly". Top cat: "Mr. Q" (all the way down at No. 22 ... not a good showing by the kittehs.)

Check out the standings, here as always.

Here's a bonus picture of musician G. Love. Just because.

P6 2012: MPF004's Picks Explained

Man, what a few weeks it's been. Since I started prepping the Pick Six, all this happened:

* interviewed for a new job with two companies
* accepted a new job
* got laid off (yes, in that order)
* went to Buffalo and Cleveland
* started the new job
* saw Bruuuuce live in concert
* bought a new car
* went to a trade show

Somewhere in there, I found time to make my picks. Now normally, I put a ton of effort into my picks. As the host of the Pick Six, I like to be knowledgeable about teams and players, to make a respectable showing in the standings. Now I don't know if it's being a dad, or all of the stuff above, or the combination of both, but I didn't post my traditional "picks explained" on the opening night of Week 1. Well as they say, better late than never: here are my picks, explained with commentary I wrote before the season but never posted, along with some new analysis based on the first few weeks of the season.

Group A: LSU. Even though Southern Cal is the best team on paper, they still have the 75-scholarship limit. Injuries, when not if they happen, will test their depth. Likewise, I do think Oklahoma has a great chance at the championship game, but any stumble will cost them, without a conference championship game to redeem themselves. Hearing that a redshirt freshman beat out sophomore Brian Bennett for QB wipes out any trust I had in Oregon. Repeating is tough any year, but moreso with Alabama's losses to graduation/eligibility. Plus there's that SEC schedule that includes a trip to LSU.
Upon further review: Bama seemed just fine destroying Michigan and Arkansas. LSU and Oregon haven't been tested yet. Southern Cal lost at Stanford tonight.

Group B: Four teams, really, in this grouping to choose from. Usually, you don't see three teams from the same conference, but that's what we've got here. Can't see Florida State improving on that #7 ranking unless they win a BCS bowl. Knile Davis returns at Arkansas, but with all the turmoil around Bobby Petrino and John L. "Slappy" Smith taking over, do you really expect big things?

That leaves Georgia and South Carolina to choose from. Since I've got LSU in Group A from the SEC West and a promising nominee Group E from the SEC East, I'm going to pass on Georgia given the loss of RB Crowell. Until I've got a reason to go against them, I guess I'll stay with South Carolina. Not that I love picking Connor Shaw and the Gamecocks, as I doubt they can repeat last year's success, but that's what I've got.

(I always thought of it as "That School Up North," but at any rate, Woody Hayes acolytes will hopefully appreciate what I did there.)

So this is my flashpoint. Yes, that makes two SEC teams in the top two picks. For me it boils down to, is Florida State really that good? I've rode them to mediocrity the last two years, I'm trying something else.
Upon further review: Arkansas is indeed bad, with or without Davis (mostly because they are "with" Slappy). Yes, Florida State appears to be that good, and thus my logic is sunk.

Group C: Wisconsin. Damn good team, will probably win the Big Ten. Michigan State lost all their offensive firepower, Texas hasn't found the magic yet, West Virginia moves to a new conference, and even if I liked Clemson, which I don't, they lost their bowl 70-33. Seventy!
Upon further review: Wisconsin strugged with UNI, lost to Oregon State, and barely beat Utah State at home. Ouch. Sparty lost at home to ND; Texas and WVU are so far so good.

Group D: With Florida State out of the "B" spot, I elevated Virginia Tech as my ACC champion. I don't think Nebraska or Ohio State can unseat Wisconsin, and TCU is in a new conference. Oklahoma State was my pick here until I read about all the offense they lose.
Upon further review: Avoiding Okie State was a good idea. Choosing Va. Tech over FSU was not. Ohio State looks like the real deal thus far. I like Braxton Miller's improvement under the tutelage of Meyer.

Group E: I'm unimpressed with this batch so I'm going with Florida which yes, that makes three SEC teams. It's highly risky, I admit. I've already got two guaranteed losses (S.Car @ LSU  and S.Car @ Florida) plus a potential conference championship game of LSU vs the East winner. But Stanford no longer has Harbaugh or Luck, Kansas State is the sixth best team in a 10-team conference; how much higher can they climb? Boise State will recede into a footnote, and Louisville won't win the Big East.
Upon further review: As for K-State, they are up to 15th in the country, so maybe they can actually improve. Stanford beat No. 2 Southern Cal tonight. Boise lost in week 1 to Sparty, and may or may not return to the poll. How the hell would I know who will or won't win the Big East?

Group F: For the first time in a while, both Iowa and Notre Dame were legitimate options for a "F" pick. But Notre Dame has that killer schedule and is at basically USC-level of scholarships after a wave of attrition. Iowa doesn't have a running back, although a very likely 5-0 start makes them a tempting pick. But I poked around the edges of the Phil Steele and found a team that lost a lot of close games, has a senior quarterback, and a coach with a few years under his belt.

Good thing we're talking college football and not geography.

South Florida is underlooked in the Big East, and with B.J. Daniels at the helm, they have the potential to rise up in their conference and into the polls.

Upon further review: Iowa never got off to that 5-0 start. South Florida lost on Thursday, at home. Home teams are NEVER supposed to lose that Thursday game. ND is 3-0 after beating Sparty in East Lansing tonight.

In conclusion, if I could trade FSU for Va. Tech as my leading ACC team, I'd make that trade. Florida is looking nice out of the gate, sitting at 2-0 in the conference after Week 3. As we all know it's a long season, but I've already got buyer's remorse. 

P6 2012: Boredom? Not So Fast My Friend

Watching College Gameday yesterday morning, host Chris Fowler observed that this week had no ranked vs. ranked games. With the entire Top 25 facing (allegedly) lesser competition, it looked like a quiet week.

It started out quiet, with the only morning game of note being Penn State losing on a last second field goal. Pretty soon their losing won't be news, but the fall really is remarkable. The afternoon games weren't quiet, as Iowa and Notre Dame began the work of re-burning that ulceric hole in my stomach from last year. Notre Dame at least had enough offense to hold off Purdue, even if they had to bring in Tommy Rees as the "closer." As for Iowa, well, yesterday I changed a diaper that looked better than that Hawkeye offense.

The excitement finally came in the night games: Arkansas got upset at home by Louisiana-Monroe, who a few years ago beat Alabama in Saban's first year.

And yet a couple years later, they put up a statue of the old bastard.

If that wasn't enough, Top 25'ers Nebraska, Wisconsin and Oklahoma State all went west for road games, and all came home 1-1.

New to the poll: Tennessee, UCLA, Arizona, BYU. Congrats to  "Mo' Mini, Mo' Problems," Mutchka and Tippy for seeing Rocky Top, their Pick Sixth, enter the poll. No one has the other three teams, but Arizona destroyed Oklahoma State in the desert (59-38), UCLA beat the Huskers in the Rose Bowl, and BYU, uh, BYU has beaten Weber State and Washington State. Mormon favoritism perhaps? Could the voters not be compelled to slide a MAC school in at No. 25?

Biggest increase: I don't know if "Pizza Delivery" has his own source of income to pay for that pie, as his entry form indicated he is 6 years old. However, he was savvy enough to have five teams that jumped a collective 15 points, for the best point improvement of the week (and climbing from 53rd to 14th place).

Pizza Delivery was definitely above average, because the all-player average lost five points, from 64.5 to 59.4. I guess that's what happens when four teams representing 60 total picks are booted in Week 2. This might be the biggest single-week carnage I've seen, reminesecent of "The Ballad of Group D."

The Minus Five, specially dedicated this week to you, the Pick Sixer.

 Enough jibber jabber, who's winning? How does this keep happening:

"Sidney" has the perfect pick for the A, B and E groups, and is only one point off perfect in C and D. Luckily NC State sucks this year, or the gloating might get so loud you could hear it in Bowling Green.

Top dog: "Silly Milly". Top child: "Thomas the Train". Top kitty: Tippy.

Standings are here, take a look if you can bear it.

This week: Notre Dame vs. Michigan State. Iowa tries to score double digits against a I-AA school (that just happens to be up I-380 from them). Alabama plays Arkansas in what would have been a Top Ten matchup. Florida and Tennessee find out how good they might be when they play each other in Knoxville.

Pick Six 2012: Off and Running

Welcome back to the Pick Six!

Normally, I write up a quick introductory post when the season kicks off, explaining my picks and why you should've picked like me. However, this year I was really busy, and I think my picks suck. So let's just jump into the Week 1 recap.

In the first week, not a lot usually happens, and this year that's what we got. Most teams cruised by their weaker competition, and so there's little movement in the poll. There were two Top 25 matchups, and as expected both losers tumble. Boise fell out of the Top 25, and -- by the way, Alabama just scored on Michigan's vaunted defense again -- and, sorry, what was I talking about?

There was one new entry to the poll, fresh off an Irish drubbing of the United States Naval Academy:

Biggest gainers: Hard to do when not much changes, but congrats to Mutchka, Super Why and Kaitlyn's Crushers for going +7 on the week.

Enough jibber jabber, who's winning? Aaand, with so many people playing the game, I'm sure I have to go find a new picture to represent this week's winner ... let's see. ...

Oh hell.

Yes, last year's winner "Sidney" jumps out of the gate to lead with a Week 1 score of 76 points. Don't worry football fans, if last year is any indication, we'll see a lot of different names at the top as the season goes on.

Top kitty: Mutchka. Top dog: "Silly Milly". Top child: "Daddy's reason to like softball".

Full standings are here. Bookmark this page! The standings will update each week, and the link will not change all year.

In Week 2, most Pick Six teams take a breather. Washington, one of the top Pick Sixths, plays at LSU, one of the overlooked Group A teams. Iowa plays hated Iowa State, and while that only affects a couple of P6 players, it affects my blood pressure greatly.

The Third Annual Pick Six Game

I heard a rumor earlier in the week: the preseason AP poll would be released on Saturday. So Saturday morning I woke up, went to my computer, waited til the 9am release time, checked the teams, and announced:

"The Pick Six is officially ON!" (Oh yeah, there are Viking Kittens.)

For those who played before, welcome back. For newcomers, welcome to the game. Read on:

The rules: The preseason AP poll of teams 1 through 25 is broken up into five quintiles:

A: Southern Cal, Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, Oregon
B: Georgia, Florida State, Michigan, South Carolina, Arkansas
C: West Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Clemson, Texas
D: Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, TCU
E: Stanford, Kansas State, Florida, Boise State, Louisville

Pick one team from each grouping. Then pick one unranked team (Group F) ... it can be any team not listed above. That's your six. The goal is to have the highest ranked teams at the end of the season (after all bowls are played). The No. 1 team gets 25 points, No. 2 gets 24, down to No. 25 gets one point. The standings will be posted online so you can follow along. (I will update the standings each week, but only the final poll matters.)

My favorite aspect of the game is that it's so easy, your cat or dog can play. Or baby. Hell, last year we had a fetus (who has since turned into an awesome little dude). Feel free to enter a pickset for any member of your household. If you do, please share how your cat/dog/parakeet/infant made his/her picks. It is usually such fun to read the creativity of our contestants.

 

Is this a MAC-tastic hint for an "F" pick? 

 How easy is it? Here's last year's winner:

and the runner-up:

So even if you are a casual fan, or you are a child having this read to you by your mom or dad, You Can Do This!

The prize: As you can see, last year's theme was kitsch from a prominent football program, in the spirit of the original game hosted by Notre Dame blog The Blue-Gray Sky. I'm hoping to keep that theme going this year. Exact item will be revealed later in the season.

Note: DO NOT WRITE "OSU" for your Group D team! I don't care if you live in Ohio and you think I know which OSU you're talking about (or if you live in the south and you think I know which OSU you're talking about). Anybody who submits "OSU" will be assigned the Oregon State Beavers and get any points they earn (that particular "OSU" went 3-9 last year, the way). Similarly, but less likely, don't write "OU" for Oklahoma or Oregon. I will assume you mean the Ottawa Braves of Ottawa, Kansas. Please be clear.

The field: We had 22 entries in 2010 and 52 in 2011. The goal this year, in the spirit of that Olympics thing we dominated this summer, is to grow international. If you have a friend or relative outside the US borders, who likes college football and/or can select one of five items at random, send along the info! I'd love to make this the "World Famous" Pick Six Game. Can we break 80 in 2012? Can we get world famous?

A subtle reminder that Notre Dame finished just outside the poll as the 26th team, highest among the "others receiving votes."

The deadline: Email your picks and your pickset name (for returning players, you can keep last year's or pick a new one) to tmmpf.blog at gmail dot com (to ensure your picks aren't seen early). The deadline is Thursday, August 30, at 5:55 pm Central (five minutes before the first game).

The comment field is open for bragging and taunting. Good luck, and have fun!

How Are You Going to Get Better?

In a somewhat summer tradition, I take a look at Iowa and Notre Dame and try to figure out how they can possibly improve upon last year's record. Because every fan wants their team to get better, but it boils down to beating someone you lost to last year (and not losing a game you won last year).

This year, I'm looking back to see if my predictions were even close. Let's start with Iowa.

Last summer I wrote:

How does Iowa get better? It takes a fair amount of optimism. ... I don't see an improvement on 7-5 with a real chance for a backslide.

Now we know that was unfortunately true.

Iowa: 2010 vs. 2011

2010 Opp.	Result	2011 Opp.	Result
E. Illinois	Win	Tenn. Tech	Win
Ia. State	Win	@Ia. State	Loss (-1)
@Arizona	Loss	Pitt	Win (even)
Ball St.	Win	ULM	Win
Penn St.	Win	@Penn St.	Loss (-1)
@Michigan	Win	N'western	Win
Wisconsin	Loss	Indiana	Win (even)
Mich. St.	Win	@Minnesota	Loss (-1)
@Indiana	Win	Michigan	Win
@N'western	Loss	Mich. St.	Loss (-2)
Ohio St.	Loss	@Purdue	Win (-1)
Minnesota	Loss	@Nebraska	Loss

Iowa did not get better, and not surprisingly so. They lost their All-Star uberpatriot QB Ricky Stanzi and All-Everything DL Adrian Clayborn. You don't get better by losing that kind of talent. A 7-5 regular season led to Iowa again being overmatched against a better Big 12 squad in the Insight Bowl, but this time Oklahoma crushed Iowa 31-14.  That bowl loss dropped them to 7-6.  

Going into the final year of the Mandenberg, James Vandenberg, how will Iowa get better?

Iowa: 2011 vs. 2012

2011 Opp.	Result	2012 Opp.	Result
Tenn. Tech	Win	vs. No. Illinois	?
@Ia. State	Loss	Ia. State	?
Pitt	Win	Northern Iowa	?
ULM	Win	Central Mich.	?
@Penn St.	Loss	Minnesota	?
N'western	Win	@Mich. St.	?
Indiana	Win	Penn State	?
@Minnesota	Loss	@N'western	?
Michigan	Win	@Indiana	?
Mich. St.	Loss	Purdue	?
@Purdue	Win	@Michigan	?
@Nebraska	Loss	Nebraska	?

Improving on 7-6: it's possible. For starters, BEAT IOWA FUCKING STATE. Losing to a guy named Steele Jantz in triple overtime, a guy who couldn't even keep his job midway through the season, leaves a bitter taste. Losing to 3-9 Minnesota, even if it was a home game for them, was pretty awful. They both come to Iowa City, so those two rivalry losses should become wins. You can put Penn State in the same category: home game for Iowa, and who knows where they will be mentally or physically come midseason. Those are three strong candidates to flip.

Michigan State is probably still a loss. Despite their exodus of offensive talent, it will be Iowa's first true road game on Oct. 13, and that almost never goes well when the first road test is that late in the season. And even though Nebraska is a home game this year, I don't see that flipping. So I see two automatic losses here, but only two. I figure that Iowa's luck against Michigan can't hold, and something else (probably Northwestern) will go horribly wrong. So call it 8-4, with a ceiling of 9-3. Given the problems at running back, I would definitely take that.

As for Notre Dame, last summer I wrote:

How does Notre Dame get better? First off, Navy damn well better become a win. No more of this losing to Navy shit; Kelly and Diaco should have learned that.  ... As for retaining wins: Purdue, BC, Wake Forest (replacing Western Michigan if only for the "W" in their name), Maryland (replacing Utah), and Air Force (replacing Army) are all winnable. Pitt SHOULD be winnable but it is a home game for them. ... That's still a net gain of two for a regular season of 9-3, which I would take as solid improvement over 7-5 and 6-6 the year before.

An the results?

Notre Dame: 2010 vs. 2011

2010 Opp.	Result	2011 Opp.	Result
Purdue	Win	So. Fla	Loss (-1)
Michigan	Loss	@Michigan	Loss
@Michigan St.	Loss	Michigan St.	Win (even)
Stanford	Loss	@Pitt	Win (+1)
@BC	Win	@Purdue	Win (+2)
Pitt	Win	Air Force	Win
W. Michigan	Win	Southern Cal	Loss (+1)
Navy	Loss	Navy	Win (+2)
Tulsa	Loss	@Wake Forest	Win (+3)
Utah	Win	vs. Maryland	Win
Army	Win	BC	Win
Southern Cal	Win	@Stanford	Loss (+2)

8-4 in the regular season isn't shabby. They only played two teams ranked at gametime, but that excludes Michigan, who finished with an inexplicable, luckiest bullshittiest BCS victory in the history of ever, and Southern Cal, who got as high as #10 and finished their season 10-2 by trouncing rival UCLA 50-0. At one point they were three games better than the same point in the previous year (7-3 vs. 4-5 after the Tulsa debacle). And not screwing the pooch against either South Florida or Michigan would have delivered that 9-3 I predicted.

Even with the bowl loss to Florida State, ND has a positive trajectory, winning 6 in Charlie Weis' last year, 7 in Brian Kelly's first year, and 8 in 2011.

So can they win 9 in 2012?

No. Too many factors prevent the improvement from continuing. Since this a post about schedule, let's take a look:

Notre Dame: 2011 vs. 2012

2011 Opp.	Result	2012 Opp.	Result
So. Fla	Loss	vs. Navy	?
@Michigan	Loss	Purdue	?
Michigan St.	Win	@Michigan St.	?
@Pitt	Win	Michigan	?
@Purdue	Win	vs. Miami	?
Air Force	Win	Stanford	?
Southern Cal	Loss	BYU	?
Navy	Win	@Oklahoma	?
@Wake Forest	Win	Pitt	?
vs. Maryland	Win	BC	?
BC	Win	Wake	?
@Stanford	Loss	@Southern Cal	?

That is Phil Steele's #1 hardest schedule for 2012. Yes, his preseason (meaning where he thinks they will finish the season) poll's #2 (@Oklahoma), #4 (@Southern Cal), #18 (Stanford), #19 (@Michigan State) and #22 (Michigan). It also includes a trip to Ireland to face the triple-option offense, an offsite home game against erratic but talented Miami, and two less talented but pain-in-the-ass quasi-rivals (BC and Purdue). Replacing South Florida with Miami and Maryland with Oklahoma are severe challenges. (Air Force for BYU doesn't concern me.)

I see no way Notre Dame gets better in 2012. If they finish 9-3, put them in a top-tier bowl, because it means they won two or three games they shouldn't have while losing none they should have won. 

Venn Diagram Of That Last Post

Supreme Court to Stop Written Rulings, Use LOLCats

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- Citing the general downturn in the nation's reading comprehension, the U.S. Supreme Court announced that it would replace its written interpretations of law with captioned photos posted on the Internet.

Supreme Court rulings are often considered the most important texts produced by the country's judiciary system, with observations and precedents that will resonate down through the generations. The photos, known as "LOLcats," are best known for expressing a humorous thought in a single photo and brief text.

The most anticipated case of the current term, the review of the 2010 healthcare act, is expected to be the first ruling issued as a LOLcat. The hearings were in late March, but most court observers now believe the wait for a ruling, coming in late June, was not to write the opinion but to find the perfect photo of a hospital, doctor's office or ambulance.

   

Dred Scott v. Sandford, 1857.

Legal scholars and observers were split on the court's new direction.

"On the one hand, it creates a new realm of expression and precedent for judicial thought," said Carl Winterborough, the Harold K. Marr Distinguished Professor of Law at Georgetown University. "On the hand, using LOLcats? Lol, whatevs."

 

Miranda v. Arizona, 1966.

"Citizens used to discuss with each other the impact that Supreme Court rulings had in their lives," noted Deena Bartz, reporter for the Washington Post who covers the Court. "But in an age of reality TV, Twitter and immediate hyper-reaction, this seems like a logical conclusion. Besides, the online judicial commentariat, the so-called 'SCOTUS-bloggers,' will end up making LOLcats about the opinions anyway. The Court is just cutting out the middleman." 

Others felt the move had great potential.

"This is fantastic," said Juan Gonzalez, owner of the ScotusRules.com fanblog. "No more tedious reading through dozens of pages of yammering text, this case or that case, this law or that squiggle symbol. Just a good ol' straightforward rendering of constitutionality, with pictures and bad spelling. I hope they use lots of kittens."

 

   

Roe v. Wade, 1973.

A poll of current law students showed that 92% favored the change, replying via text message that the visual-based issuances would be "OMG gr8 yesss". However, the recently retired John Paul Stevens was said to be weeping softly in his home, upon hearing the news.

Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, 2010.

IHMF 2012: GOT MY STEELE

WOOOOOOOOOO!

In hand, motherfuckers:

Acquired yesterday, June 1, at Target of all places.

I got a baby now, and my folks are in town this weekend, so the full update is coming soon. But let me say this: Notre Dame #21; Ohio Bobcats #31; Iowa Hawkeyes #38. Phil is either a genius or on the bath salts.

Baby's First Playlist

It's been a hectic few weeks here at TMMPF HQ. All that diaper changing really puts a dent in the blogging time.

Music, as you know, is a big part of our lives, and so we wasted no time in getting the baby acclimated to our musical tastes. Here are the songs she listened to in the first weeks of life:

• "Big Brown Eyes" by the Old 97's / "Blue Eyes" by Uncle Tupelo. The former probably because we were listening to "Wreck Your Life" in the car on the day that became her birthday. The latter because when she came out, her eyes were more blue than brown. (Since then I've learned that all babies eyes are blue-gray at birth, and the true color won't come in for about nine months.)
  
• "No Need to Cry" by Neko Case. Because it's true.
  
• "Do You Realize??" by the Flaming Lips. I sang the first few lines of this to her in the hospital.

• "Stuck Between Stations", "Chips Ahoy", "Stay Positive": all alluded to previously, but the energy and excitement were coarsing through me in those hours and days in the hospital room.
  
• "Sleepness Nights" (written by Gram Parsons, but I like the Elvis Costello version)
  
• "White Winter Hymnal" by Fleet Foxes, because it seemed to calm her down. In fact, since  I typed this up a couple weeks ago, we've learned that Fleet Foxes are the only surefire way to calm her down. Those guys need to put out an 8-disc box set, pronto.
  
• "Howling for You" by the Black Keys. By Thursday (two days after the birth) we realized there were a few things from home we wanted, so I drove back to get them. My head was spinning. XRT played this song that I've heard several times, but this line jumped out at me: "Can't you see, little girl's got a hold on me like glue."

• "Stay up Late" by the Talking Heads. Heard this on my way to Babies R Us recently, and thought, oh yeah, that's true.
  
• "New Kid" by the Old 97's. Because she is. 

And of course ...

• "Goodnight Elizabeth" by the Counting Crows. They spelled Elizabeth with an "s" on their Recovering the Satellites CD, but I've gone ahead and corrected the spelling for them.

Oh How Sweet It Is...

GO BOBCATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Kitten No Longer Cutest Thing In House

Palatine, Ill. (AP) -- Franklin, an 11-month-old kitten, was replaced Friday as the Cutest Thing in his house, according to suburban household sources.

Franklin had held the Cutest Thing title since this photo from summer last year.

The grey striped kitten has reigned as the Cutest Thing in his house since being adopted in June 2011. But a new arrival, brought home Friday, has relegated Franklin to second place.

The new Cutest Thing has yet to make a statement to the press, beyond jagged screams and occasional gurgles, which have been confirmed as the cutest thing ever, or at least since that little grey kitten. Household cats had suspected a change was coming, because the new arrival merited its own room, whereas the cats slept throughout the house but without a dedicated spot.

Experts predict that not even putting a sports cap on the kitty can help him regain the title.

Franklin had maintained his iron grip on title of Cutest Thing with such actions as cuddling in laps, furiously chasing toys and his silly attraction to water. However, the new Cutest Thing has overtaken the cat by doing little more than sleeping. The kitten attempted to plead for attention, noting that he is smaller (approx. 5 pounds vs. 8 pounds for the new thing) and covered in soft fur. The meows were acknowledged and dismissed as the people hovered over the new Cutest Thing.

"Oh, Franklin is cute, you know," said one person close to the situation. "But he's getting bigger, he's almost an adult kitty now ... and look at this little one! Oh yes, wook at dis widdle one!"

Luckily, no kitties have to move out to make room for the new one.

News of the arrival of the Cute Queen spread quickly, with visitors arriving from out of state, and many more expected over the coming months. Despite being only a few days old, the Cutest Thing is already planning a tour this summer to display her household-dominating cuteness to the Midwestern region of the U.S.

The prior Cutest Thing in the House, 8-year-old Quigley B. Katt, was unavailable for comment as he was sulking under a bed.

Franklin might disagree, but THIS is cute.

Overjoyed

Everybody's been waiting for months now for yesterday to happen ...

...this is the very picture of anticipation at our house.

And sitting on the "daddy couch" in a mother-baby room in a hospital, having gone through one of the weirdest, most intense 24-hour periods of my life, my mind buzzes through a million different thoughts and feelings, but also, the pajamas.

The first article of baby clothing I bought in my entire life happened about a month ago at JCPenney's. I saw these and couldn't resist. And since they were on clearance I bought two sizes, so they can be in use as long as possible.

I was rightfully proud of that first choice, even though I didn't know who (or what) would occupy those pajamas. And now that I know, I can't wait to get her home and sleeping in these:

The words on that chest label, by the way, say "Mommy's Rockstar."

Thank you to everyone who sent their good wishes via text or email. So many song lyrics flying through my head at this busy time, including many from Craig Finn, like "the kids at the shows will have kids of their own" or the idea of the "First Night." But I think it's best to just simply say: "We were overjoyed."

Best of MPF 2011: Bonus Tracks

Every year after I finish the "Best Of" list, I always think of something I meant to add, or want to mention a couple of the items that just missed the cut. This scatterbrained year is no exception, especially since I didn't have the chance to do my usual "nominees" writeups.

In fact, this year is even worse, because it's almost March and other things are going on that have taken my attention. But the year deserves documentation, right? Here are (were) the nominees in the most important categories:

SHOWS
The slowdown of attending shows was inevitable, moving to suburbia and all. But in 2011 we had a nice mix of city and suburb musical action:

Les Miserables, Feb 25, Cadillac Palace Theatre
Robert Plant, June 16, Ravinia
Gin Blossoms, July 1, Arlington Heights (Frontier Days Festival)
The Jayhawks, July 2, Grant Park (Taste of Chicago)
Dave Matthews Band Caravan, July 10, Lakeshore (the old US Steel plant on the South Side)
Old 97's, July 20, Lincoln Hall
Hold Steady, Aug. 26, Metro
John Hiatt/Big Head Todd and Monsters, Sept. 11, Ravinia
Scott Miller, Nov. 9, Schubas
Paul Simon, Nov. 13, Rosemont Theatre
Wilco, Dec. 22, Civic Opera House

Les Miz was a bit of a disappointment: it's still an epic musical experience of course, but the revamped version lost the turntable and a little magic or wonder along with it. Plant had so many amazing musicians on stage with him, bringing to life his solo work and re-imagining old Zep tunes so well you sometimes didn't recognize them until the first or second lyric.

The Gins sleptwalked through a sorta-greatest hits set, and if that lead singer asked me to put my hands together one more time I was about ready to charge the stage and ask him and his band to actually put some effort into the show. We saw the Jayhawks twice in about a month, and as much as I wanted to like the reformed Louris-Olson lineup ... the new songs just put me to sleep.

The Caravan was a great musical experience, but the festival planners have some learning to do if they put the show on next summer. Too few restrooms and water stations, and wood chips do not replace grass for a festival space.

The 97's were fine; what I'll remember most is seeing that venue for the first time, and stepping out at 10pm to take an urgent work call while kinda buzzed. (This is why I don't say where I work or what I do.) Similarly, The Steady was a nice show, but they still miss Franz. Hiatt was reliable, but Todd Park Mohr stole the show with a stunning version of "America the Beautiful." Miller was great of course, looking clean-cut and rejuvenated. Paul Simon looked great for being 70, and delivered a wonderful night of his bouncy, African-tinged pop.

The Wilco show was a bit of a downer. First of all, the Civic Operat House is an amazing venue, but not for a rock show. The sightlines were blocked if anyone leaned forward, which of course rock fans are going to do. And the band was trying so hard to show off their new tricks in the first half, it nearly spoiled an otherwise good second half. And of course it's hard to complain about the encore: "Cruel to Be Kind," with opener Nick Lowe; "You Are Not Alone," with Tweedy friend and gospel legend Mavis Staples); "The Weight" with Staples and Lowe.

RECORDS
The Muppets, Green Album
Jayhawks, Mockingbird Time
R.E.M., Collapse Into Now
Baseball Project, Broadside Ballads
XRT, Live From the Archives, Vol. 13
Various, The Bridge School Concerts 25th Anniversary Edition
Adele, 21
Old 97's, Grand Theatre Vol. 2
Wilco, The Whole Love
Civil Wars, Barton Hollow
She and Him, A Very She and Him Christmas
Fleet Foxes, Helplessness Blues

If I would have paid closer attention, "Helplessness Blues" might have won Best Album. It is a deep, warm, engaging record you can put on while sipping hot tea or curled up under a blanket. It is funny that my first experience with Fleet Foxes, not only was I not impressed but I called them "Fiery Foxes" since the Fiery Furnaces were also on the bill.

Adele had an awesome single, of course, but the rest of the album was C+. I hope the songwriting improves on the next record to match the quality of her voice. The Civil Wars had a nice debut that placed them firmly in that folky, alt-country groove.Wilco didn't impress me ... it is such a cliche, but I really do prefer their earlier work.

SPORTS
Cubs-don't care (Second Game Of The Year), April 2
Toledo Mud Hens rainout, May 28
Cubs-Sox, July 3
Kane County Cougars-Cedar Rapids, July 29
Notre Dame vs. Michigan State, Sept. 17
Notre Dame vs. Air Force Academy, Oct. 8
Ohio vs. Ball State (Homecoming), Oct. 13

It was great to see the Irish win two home games. On the flip side, I have yet to see the Bobcats win in person. Including our homecoming road trip, I've now seen four Ohio losses in four states in four tries.

TRAVELS
Caribbean Cruise, Jan. 23-30
Washington DC, March 25-27
Frrr Wedding in Des Moines, May 20-22
Ohio U., Oct. 13-16
Boston, Oct. 28-30
Phoenix, Thanksgiving
Ohio, Christmas
Los Angeles, Dec. 6-7

We were lucky to take several neat trips this (last) year. It's safe to say the cruise was the highlight. We had each been on a cruise before, but not with each other.

OTHER COOL DATES
Easter Vigil, April 23.
Chicago River Cleanup with Leinenkugels, May 14
Mort visit, June 9-12
Arlington Park, July 9

I can't believe that Easter is coming up. We have so many good memories of the RCIA journey last year. We had a great visit from the Morts, and I suspect we'll have many more visitors in 2012!

P6 2011: Final Standings

A week ago tonight, Alabama defeated Louisiana State to win college football's national championship. Due to extenuating circumstances (ie, work was nuts, I needed to write the Best Of, and we're about to have a kid), I'm only getting to posting the final update now. (The top two finishers were informed Tuesday morning, as soon as I ran the numbers after the final AP poll was posted.) We've reached the end of four months of clever names and silly pictures; let's see how it all finished up.

Biggest movers: Generally, not a lot happens between the end of the regular season and the ranking after the bowl games. It takes a major collapse to fall very far, like losing 70-33 to the champion of the weakest of the six major conferences. Of course, no Pick Sixer had Clemson, so that drop didn't affect the game. Among involved teams, West Virginia (+6) was the beneficiary of that Clemson beatdown, and Oklahoma moved up 3 after beating Iowa (as they should have, Iowa did not belong in that game, thanks a lot Pennsylvania State for screwing up the Big Ten's bowl lineup). Nosedivers: Virginia Tech, -4 after losing to the luckiest Michigan team in decades; Kansas State, -4 after losing the Cotton Bowl to a very good Arkansas squad, and a couple of red-clad -3s (Nebraska and Stanford).

Biggest gainer: Even though I just said most teams didn't move very much, three players managed to finangle a 10-point jump off those gainers: "QBKatt" and "Takin' that Pick 6 to the House!" (the only two players with identical picksets) plus "A Burfict Ten."

And now, your winner:

"Sidney" entered the final poll with a five-point lead on "HORRIBLE Dog." Both had Stanford and Southern Cal, so it really came down to the Big Ten vs. SEC Showdowns in Groups C and D: South Carolina or Wisconsin, and Outback Bowl combatants Michigan State vs. Georgia. Unfortunately for the dog, her two lost and Sidney's two won, allowing the lead to widen to eight points.

Congratulations to Sidney, winner of the 2008 Volunteer license plate, officially issued by the Tennessee Department of Revenue. Here's what this year's version looks like. And congrats to HORRIBLE Dog, winner of the Tennessee Volunteers coozie, which she no doubt will urinate on. The top scoring kitty is "The Boonster," ninth overall, which is a great comeback story after he didn't do so well last year (dead last). The top scoring child is "The Bobcat," seventh overall, who visited us this summer and loved meeting our (at the time only) kitty and who also jams a mean blues harp.

Quigley gets ready to say goodbye to the prize he won last year, and has no use for.

As always, you can check out the standings here. I color coded the sheet so you can see how your teams did in the bowl. Green is a win, red a loss, and black means that either they didn't make a bowl or they are on NCAA probation for providing impermissible benefits to star running back Reggie Bush. If you want to see how your team did over the season, just click the other tab called "Points."

I just want to say thank you to all the babies, children, cats, adults, and yes, even the dogs who played the game this year. It was a lot of fun to talk with you through the season. I hope you heed the call when the email goes out in August to pick six more teams.

BEST OF MPF 2011

BEST DAY: July 1, the day we got medical confirmation that we are pregnant with our first child (due late February). Runner-up: Six days earlier, on June 25, we adopted a kitten named Franklin.

BEST ALBUM: The two-disc compilation “The Bridge School Concerts 25th Anniversary Edition.”

BEST SONG: “Rolling in the Deep” by Adele. Runner-up: “Discoverer” by R.E.M.

WORST TITLE FOR AN OTHERWISE DECENT SONG: “Every Teardrop Is a Waterfall” by Coldplay.

BEST CONCERT: Robert Plant at Ravinia (June 16). Runners-up: The Hold Steady at the Metro (Aug. 25), Scott Miller at Schubas (Nov. 9).

NOT BEST DAY OR BEST CONCERT SO I GUESS IT GETS ITS OWN CATEGORY: The Dave Matthews Band Caravan (July 10), a daylong music festival at the old US Steel site on the South Side’s lakeshore. We saw Emmylou Harris, the Jayhawks, Sharon Jones and the Dap-Kings, David Gray, Flaming Lips and DMB.

BEST PICTURE: Keeping with the theme of new additions, I think I’ll go with these two:

The 20-week ultrasound.

Franklin's first day home.

BEST OPENING ACT: Nick Lowe (for Wilco, Dec. 12 at the Civic Opera House). Runner-up: Big Head Todd and the Monsters (for John Hiatt at Ravinia).

BEST COVER: I saw many cool versions this year, but the winner is the Flaming Lips doing Pink Floyd's “Dark Side of the Moon” at DMB Caravan. Runners-up include “Secret Agent Man” by the Gin Blossoms (Frontier Days in Arlington Heights, July 1) and Big Head Todd and the Monsters’ "America the Beautiful" (Ravinia, on the 10th anniversary of Sept. 11).

The magical weirdness of the Flaming Lips. (click to see detail)

BEST NEW VENUE: We finally saw a show at Lincoln Hall (Old 97’s, July 20) and enjoyed the intimate space with great sightlines.

BEST VACATION/BEST WAY TO WATCH A BEARS GAME: Our Caribbean cruise/the big screen by the pool deck, wearing shorts in winter (Jan. 23-30).

BEST AD: I don't always watch commercials. But when I do, I prefer the Most Interesting Man in the World (Dos Equis).

I actually saw this one before it was released, as part of focus group testing. The cat on the table was my favorite part.

WORST AD: I covered my ears when I heard the incessant earworms of State Farm’s “get to a better state” radio jingles. I also hated AT&T’s “that’s so 12 seconds ago” ads.

BEST MOVIE: True Grit, directed by Joel and Ethan Coen (released in late 2010, saw in the theatre early 2011).

BEST TV SHOW: Louie (FX). I didn’t watch a lot of TV beyond sports and news, but this was incredibly funny and honest.

MOST FUN DURING THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON: The Pick Six game I managed. Last year we had about 12 people, this year we had more than 50.

BEST CUBS GAME: My first ever Cubs-Sox game was in the midst of a Cubbie losing streak, but the North Siders got the win (July 3).

BEST NOTRE DAME GAME: After an 0-2 start, the Irish steamrolled Michigan State 31-13 (Sept. 17).

BEST ROAD TRIP: Many good nominees here, but I’ll go with my first trip to Ohio University in Athens, Ohio (Oct. 14-16). The football team lost the Homecoming game, but I really enjoyed seeing the campus.

Franklin's original ad from the adoption agency.

WORST THING ABOUT THERE NOT BEING A DOUBLE-A BASEBALL TEAM AROUND HERE: We could have completed the grand slam, as we went to major league (Cubs, twice), Class AAA (Toledo, May 28, although it turned into a rainout) and Class A games (Kane County Cougars, July 29).

BEST T-SHIRT: The one that said "National Sarcasm Society" and below in smaller letters "Yeah, like we really need your support." (spotted on Randolph Street near Wells)

BEST PLAY: The Les Miserables revival we saw (Cadillac Palace, Feb. 25) was neat and all, but did match lofty expecations, so I’m giving it to a small play we saw in Boston called “Or,” (Lyric Stage Company, Oct. 29).

WE’LL MISS: Rock band R.E.M., who called it quits after a 31-year career on Sept. 23.

We are looking forward to an exciting new adventure in the new year. May God’s blessings be on you and your family in 2012.

P6 2011: A Programming Note

Attention Pick Sixers: the final game of the season is Monday night. The final AP poll will be released Tuesday morning. Ideally I would crank the numbers in the morning and get the results posted. However I will be working out of town on Tuesday, so I'll strive to get the final numbers up as quickly as possible.

This probably only affects Sidney and HORRIBLE Dog, as the rest of you can probably wait a day to see howe it all finished up. But I don't want you all thinking I'm asleep at the wheel.

Enjoy the last college football game for eight months. This shall be the first and last time I say this on the blog or ever: Roll Tide.