Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Monday, October 17, 2011
P6 2011: Week 7 Goes Losering
Last night we got back from a weekend (dare I say MAC-tastic) trip to Athens, Ohio, to see Ohio University football. We've now seen them four times: at Northwestern, at Tennessee, at the Motor City Bowl vs. Marshall, and now finally a home game. And they lost all four. Hell, we even went to a volleyball Friday night. They were 6-0 in conference before we showed up ... and the volleyball team lost.
So that's it. No more going to Ohio games. If you can't beat Ball State on Homecoming, it must not be the football team ... it must be me.
Despite this week's losering theme, all six of my Pick Sixers got wins. Alabama and Florida State crushed inferior opponents; Southern Cal got the rare road win on Thursday night; South Carolina eked out a win; Utah did the same on the road vs. Pitt, and Sparty ... well, let's let the third-most dickish coach in the Big Ten describe it:
And although I gained nine points, unfortunately all that winning didn't get me out of the 40's in the standings.
In the polls: Another slow week at the top of the standings: the top 10 remain unchanged. After that, there was a little bit of action with #11 Michigan and #12 Georgia Tech lost.
A personal apology to "Violas Rock." Somehow I didn't get Kansas State added to the scoring. They started at #20, then climbed to #17 and now to #12. I don't know how this happened, only to say that there is a human element to Pick Six scoring. Maybe someday I'll charge you all $10 to play and I'll hire a neighbor whiz kid to computerize the scoring system. What's worse, Violas Rock was one of the few teams I was beating the standings.
With the correct count of K-State, and the re-addition of Georgia and Washington, there are now only two teams in the poll that were unpicked by anyone in the game: Clemson and Georgia Tech.
Sparty got a fourth straight win over "Big Brother" and gained eight points for the biggest climb this week. The other big gainers were K-State (No. 17 to 12) and unkillable Auburn (No. 24 to 19).
The losers were Arizona State (lost to Oregon by two touchdowns), Illinois (lost to previously awful Ohio State), and Michigan (finally faced a competent defense for 60 minutes).
Most Improved Of The Week:
"Violas Rock!" No, it's not because I forgot about K-State (a legit +5). Violas Rock has Texas A&M (+4) and Michigan State (+8). That is a non-wind-aided plus 17 points for the week. Congrats Carolyn (and Mike)!
Enough jibber jabber, who's winning?
Why this boring ass picture? Because this is the video conference room available from Remote Counsel in Champaign, Illinois. Hence, "The Champagne Room." He gained four points to strengthen his lead over Week 5 leader "ALeMay." Somebody else please win next week, or I'm just going to give up and post another Chris Rock video.
Tuesday, October 04, 2011
Ladies and Gentleman...
The best 110 dance ever? Discuss...
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Talkin' Ohio Football With Matt From Hustle Belt
MPF004: Every conference opponent has a first- or second-year coach (exception being Dave Clawson, 3rd year at Bowling Green). How much of an advantage does that give a veteran coach like Solich?
Matt Sussman: Yeah, the conference has been beleaguered by bigger schools with fatter paychecks. Having continuity at the head coach position is an advantage when recruiting. I don't think Solich will be hired away any time soon, but the other coaches will likely be fired or climbing the coaching ladder in two years. In terms of an edge during the season, I don't know how much of a difference it makes.
MPF: Although, I'd like to think there are in-game advantages. Solich knows his players better, and he's seen the other team's players before. He shouldn't get flustered by late-game situations (a la Les Miles) and he in theory knows the officials. Those are the things I think would make a difference on gameday.
MS: There may be some advantage, but even these new coaches have been around college football before, and big games too. Consider that Steve Addazio [former Florida offensive coordinator] and Dave Clawson [former OC at Tennessee and now the most-tenured sweatervest wearer in the Buckeye State] have been in the SEC. Darrell Hazell [Kent] and Dave Doeren [Northern] coached at OSU. Don Treadwell [Not Cheating Miami] called plays at Michigan State. They've all seen a lot and been in close games. Solich as well has Big XII and even BCS experience. You're right that he's recruited all his players, and maybe there's something to the fact that he can coach to that. But that seems more like an off-the-field advantage, where the difference is made in recruiting, practice and conditioning. Is Solich a great in-game tactician? I don't know about that; maybe that's the real question here.
MPF: Phil Bates. I've seen the man throw in person and on TV. Even at home I wasn't sure if the ball was going to hit me. Given his speed (good) and arm (not good), he seemed perfect for a position change to slot receiver, but early reports from camp have him still at QB. If he's going to stay at QB he has to throw a lot better or no defense will respect the pass. Do you like Bates, or the kid Tettleton, or Door #3 (aka reshirt freshman Snyder) for the QB position?
MS: If I were a coach, I'd always put in Mickey Tettleton's son. But that's why I'm not coaching. I have the same concerns about Bates being a full-time starter. I think he's still going to be a direct snap guy, but with another year of experience he may take on a bigger load. I'd bet they split the time between him and Tettleton.
(Note: since this conversation, Tettleton was announced as the starter. I followed up for Matt's thoughts on this quasi-breaking news....)
MS: I think that Tettleton might be their greatest weakness on offense ... obviously he's a third-year player so maybe he has enough experience. I haven't seen him play so he could be great, but first-year starters tend to make a few mental mistakes when the game speeds up. Then again, Austin Boucher [The Other Miami] won a MAC Championship last year.
MPF: Phil Steele likes Ohio to win the division, but almost more for reasons of schedule than talent. In my experience, when the best thing you can say about a team is who they DON'T play, it's not a good sign. How do you see this year's Bobcats handling this schedule? Is it tailor-made, or are they going to stub their toe against the bottom feeders?
MS: It's a trendy pick because we know very little about these teams, and all we have is their skill set on paper and the skill sets/rankings of all the other teams, and yes, in theory, Ohio has a schedule where they can run the table. But if you look at the MAC media poll, another byproduct of soft science ... we really don't know what kind of team they're going to be. They could be great, or they could be average. But we know they have what looks to be an easy schedule. Perhaps Buffalo or Akron or CMU is actually going to be formidable, and suddenly the schedule isn't such a string of cupcakes.
MPF: Sticking with the schedule for the moment, what is your game of the year? Bonus points for picking something besides Temple on ESPN2.
MS: Ha. Well, last year they got their revenge on Temple by knocking them out of the MAC East race, but the following week they had a devastating loss to Kent State. So you might see the Bobcats try to come out and cream them. And the Miami game, always.
MPF: What do you see as the greatest strength and greatest weakness of this year's squad? Feel free to answer in terms of a player (RT Flading or MLB Keller) or position group (linebackers) or intangible (coaching, schedule, Rufus's badass-ness).
MS: The offensive line is definitely their advantage, and even if that's all they had going for them, it's a hell of a starting point. Especially since one of their drawbacks is being the only team to have lost their starting quarterback. So likely the learning curve for the new QB will be mitigated by an experienced blocking line.

MPF: Ohio's special teams are beyond good and dare I say, BCS-conference caliber, with Keller and Hershey and I assume Lavon Brazill returning kicks. Given Ohio's propensity for close games, especially in 2009, do you see special teams as a difference-maker in Ws and Ls this year?
MS: That all does depend on if Brazill can return to his 2009 form. We know Hershey and Keller should be solid, but they'll also need smart play from their blockers.
MPF: Frank Solich's Ohio teams have a history of getting to, but not winning, the big game. See: 2006 conference championship and bowl, 2009 conference championship and bowl, 2010 vs. Kent with the East title on the line. Is this the year they finally win a meaningful game, ie a conference championship or bowl? (The Pitt upset was cool, but not meaningful in a postseason sense.)
MS: It's very possible. I think they can reach the MAC Championship, but to go as far to say they'd beat Toledo or NIU or even WMU is going to be tough. Looking on the other side, people say Cubit is due at WMU, and that's actually a championship game I'd love to see, because then something absolutely would have to give.
MPF: If you could ask Frank Solich one question, what would it be? If you
were both at a Court Street bar, would it be a different question?
MS: If it were Courtside, it would be "what are you doing here?" And given the fact that I rarely get out, if I did happen to run into him, I'm pretty much stupefied that he was at the same place I was.
MPF: Now that Boo Jackson has moved on, who has your favorite nickname and hairdo in the MAC?
MS: If one Boo is good, then two is better. BG's cornerback/kick returner Jerry "Boo Boo" Gates takes the title. As for the hair, always look for the Pacific Islanders. And Akron has one with an amazing mane, and the name couldn't be any more perfect than defensive tackle Phil Tonga.

MPF: Have you ever used the word "Mac-tastic" in a sentence?
MS: I prefer MAC-ceptional.
Thanks, Matt. Be sure to check out his blog at hustlebelt.com. Ohio opens the season on Sept. 3 at New Mexico State on something called AggieVision. Good luck Bobcats!
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
What To Make Of These Bobcats?
In all that time, the Bobcats have occasionally surprised but generally been a disappointment. Numerous winnable games have gone by the books. I'm 0-3 seeing them in person, and each time they had a lead or were in a winnable position late.
Last year was no exception: with the East title and a return trip to the conference championship on the line, all they had to do was beat 4-7 Kent State. So on the Friday after Thanksgiving they turned in an awful performance, losing 28-6 and setting up a lethargic performance in the Whatever Bowl I Don't Even Remember Or Care Sponsored By Company You've Never Heard Of.
But this year, I am filled with excitement and optimism, and not just cause right now is football's spring training. This might be the year Ohio gets over the hump and wins a meaningful postseason game.
As Phil Steele points out, a lot of the reason is the schedule. Now, I've always been cautious when the best thing you can say about a team is "look at who they DON'T play." But look at this:
| Team | Ranking |
|---|---|
| N. Mexico St. | 109 |
| Gard.-Webb | I-AA |
| Marshall | 97 |
| @Rutgers | 66 |
| Kent St. | 105 |
| @Buff | 118 |
| Ball St. | 113 |
| @Akron | 120 |
| Temple | 91 |
| @CM | 102 |
| @BG | 115 |
| Fake Miami | 100 |
Ohio is 90. Using the Steele ranking, only Rutgers is a sure loss, Marshall and Temple (maybe CMU) are tossups, and the rest ought to be wins. On paper, that's 9 wins and probably the East title. And who they miss is key: Toledo (77), W. Michigan (73) and Northern Illinois (78).
But the Steele method is based on predicted strength. It doesn't tell us anything about the teams that actually played last year. That's why I started How Are You Going To Get Better, which posits that to improve you must beat someone this year who you lost to last year.
In the non-conference, Ohio's HAYGTGB shows wins over I-AA Wofford and Sun Belt Louisiana-Lafeyette. Losses were to Marshall and Ohio State. This year, the "easy" win can be retained by beating I-AA Gardner-Webb. But the marquee game is at Rutgers, and while Rutgers is down, they are still a Big East team. Marshall stays on the schedule, which means they have to either flip Marshall or win at New Mexico State. Winning on the road in week 1, especially so far from home, generally is not easy. (Although on the other hand, the Aggies were near the bottom of all defensive categories last year, so maybe it's not that hard.)
In the MAC, there's isn't much room for improvement. Ohio went 6-2 in conference as part of a 7-game winning streak midseason. The losses were to Kent (inexplicable) and Toledo (also not very reasonable).
| 2010 Opp. | Result | 2011 Opp. | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wofford | Win | N. Mexico St. | ? |
| Toledo | Loss | Gard.-Webb | ? |
| @tOSU | Loss* | Marshall | ? |
| @Marshall | Loss | @Rutgers | ? |
| @E.Mich. | Win | Kent St. | ? |
| BG | Win | @Buff | ? |
| Akron | Win | Ball St. | ? |
| @Fake Miami | Win | @Akron | ? |
| La.Lafeyette | Win | Temple | ? |
| Buffalo | Win | @CM | ? |
| @Temple | Win | @BG | ? |
| @Kent | Loss | Fake Miami | ? |
* -- victory vacated by The Ohio State
I hope the Bobcats can find some revenge against Kent State. Toledo falls off, replaced by Central Michigan which does not have Dan LeFever or Brian Kelly so this is looking good. EMU also drops off, replaced by Ball State, which should be a win. All that means Ohio will need to keep last season's wins against their East foes to improve on last year.
And how does that improvement happen? To be honest, even against weak competition, I'm not sure. There's a new QB, either a guy who can't hit the broadside of a barn (do they have barns in southeast Ohio?) or a guy who didn't play a down last year. The top returning rusher is said wild-armed quarterback. The D-line has zero starters returning.
I'm hopeful, but cautious. Stop by later this week to see what a real expert thinks.
Tuesday, August 09, 2011
The Most Respectful Football Conference
The league office, however, might want to take a look at one of those MAC graduates who can put together a sentence:
Here's the screengrab:Detroit, Mich. – The Miami RedHawks and the Toledo Rockets have been selected to win the East and West divisions respectfully in the 2011 Mid-American Conference Football Preseason Poll.
When I read that, I immediately thought of Dennis Hope from Almost Famous, in one of the small but crucial scenes of that fantastic movie.

In conclusion:
- The writer meant "respectively," identifying sequenced items that retain their order later in the sentence;
- It makes it so much harder to not make fun of the MAC when they do stuff like this;
- If you thought I was going to write about the MAC this week without mentioning this you are nuts (note Iowa is #4);
- Here is Jimmy Fallon in bed with Chewbacca.
Monday, June 06, 2011
GOT MY STEELE
WOOOOOOOOOO!
...and utter those three magical words: "in hand, motherfuckers."

I've been digesting the 2011 College Football Preview as best I can, considering yesterday was full of yardwork and a nice dinner out. (No, I did not bring the Steele to the restaurant.) As you know it is JAMPACKED WITH INFORMATION but here are some initial observations:
- He likes Alabama and Oklahoma in the title game.
- He had Ohio State at No. 15 knowing about the 5-game suspensions, but not about the car dealership and Tressel's resignation.
- Ohio U. is at Number 34! This is an insanely high number, and a huge inflation from their "pure" ranking (ignoring schedule) of No. 90. Why such a bump? Because Phil ranks their schedule as dead last in all of America. He likes them to win the MAC East.
- Notre Dame makes a strong showing in the unit rankings: #20 QB, #38 RB, #6 WR, #11 OL. And then get ready for this: #15 DL, #5 LB, #8 DB, #19 Special Teams.
- In fact, Phil is fully conflicted about the Irish: he admits ND under-achieves his prediction every year, but Brian Kelly over-achieves every year. This year he goes in for the Irish again, putting them at No. 6.
- Iowa, after losing a ton of senior talent, lands at third in the Western division behind Nebraska and Michigan State (#42 nationally).
- Whether you are glass half-full or glass half-lose-to-ISU about Iowa, turn to page 299. In two separate articles, he lists the Hawks as likely to improve on last year's bad fortune (3 net close losses), as those tend to even out over the years. But he also notes that Iowa's bend-but-don't-break defense gave up a lot of yards without giving up points, and that tends to even out to the other direction as well.

Reading through Steele also piques your interest about all that knowledge he's crammed in there. For example, while perusing the MAC, I pieced together this marvelous trivia question: Who is the most recent MAC Coach of the Year still in his job? (Hint: 11 teams have a first-, second- or third-year coach.)
Even more crazy trivia question: who holds the record (since they started keeping track in 1965) for most MAC Coach of the Year awards? Keep in mind, the MAC is known as the "Cradle of Coaches" for sending luminaries to the Big Ten and other prominent Midwestern universities.
That's most of what I've got on first glance, without going all geeky on you** about the Newcomers section moving and the confusion of those western conferences. Leave your trivia guesses in the comments section. Pick 6 is only about 10 weeks away!
* Freudian slip. I really did type that, and found it too hilariously true to correct.
** 99% of readers to MPF004: "Too late."
Tuesday, February 08, 2011
Missed January
So two things for you tonight. First, some totally out of the blue MAC trivia. TM either heard this or pointed it out recently: In the past 10 years, seven head coaches from the MAC have been hired as head coaches at BCS conferences ... and none has* been fired (although two are no longer at that school). Can you name them?
* -- Occasional proper grammar use is at the sole discretion of the blog proprietor.
While you think about that, the other thing: I had some rare free time this weekend, so naturally I spent it idly wasting time on my computer. I ended up cleaning up and organizing the many photos scattered throughout multiple folders on my desktop. Some were too damn good to keep to myself:
And some were just too damn random:


Okay, done thinking? Here are the answers:
(year listed is first season at new school)
- Brian Kelly, Central Michigan to Cincinnati in 2007 (then to another BCS school in 2010)
- Butch Jones, Central Michigan to Cincinnati in 2010
- Turner Gill, Buffalo to Kansas in 2010
- Jim Grobe, Ohio to Wake Forest in 2001
- Gary Pinkel, Toledo to Missouri in 2001
- Jerry Kill, Northern Illinois to Minnesota in 2011
- Terry Hoeppner, Fake Miami to Indiana in 2005 (Hoeppner died of brain cancer in 2007.)
Other close but wrong answers: Randy Walker went from Fake Miami to Northwestern in 1999. (He died of a heart attack in 2006.) Urban Meyer went from a MAC school (Bowling Green) to a BCS school (Florida) but there was a non-BCS school in between (Utah). Nick Saban went from Toledo to the Cleveland Browns as defensive coordinator, then to Michigan State. Of course, he has never stayed in one place long enough to get fired.
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Week 12: Score Update and Michigan Hate

More on that in a minute. Before we get to the latest Pick Six scores, here is the update from two weeks ago. No news the cat's winning blah blah blah:
Team Name Total
1 Mr. Q 116
2 Hüskers Dü 101
3 Finley 90
4 Mo 87
5 P. Puff 82
6 Piece of Cheese 82
7 Frrrrrr 77
8 Sidney 71
9 Larry Sparks 68
10 My Non-Contention 67
11 HuskerFan 66
12 Sadandbritish 65
13 Tippy 61
14 Art/Arden/Aislinn 58
15 Sodeh 56
16 Mitzu 56
17 QBKatt 54
18 Gin-N-Tonic with Extra Lime 53
19 MPF004 53
20 Team Awesome Excavator 46
21 MAC FAN 29
22 The Boonster 26
Now this week. Florida State jumped back into the poll, thanks to a win over these guys.
The biggest impact on the poll was Nebraska's 9-6 loss to Texas A&M, hurting two of the top three players. (Not the cat of course. His picks appears unbeatable.) Iowa's loss to Ohio State hurt, but the Hawks did remain in the poll, the highest-ranked four-loss team, at No. 24.
Okay, here's the link to the scores. No surprises. Quigley is still leading.
How about this weekend's games? I've gotten very MACtastic this year. Not sure why. I think it's just because it's been fun watching Ohio put together a solid season after stumbling out of the gate. I've followed the conference pretty closely, so I can tell you that the MAC East Championship comes down to tomorrow morning's game (yes morning ... 10am). If Ohio beats Kent State, they win the East. If they lose, rival Fake Miami will take the division.
Let's say you're out of the running in the Pick Six, and now you're just rooting for chaos. What does this weekend mean for you?
Arkansas vs. LSU: 10 of the top 12 scorers have either Arky or LSU. The 3rd, 4th and 5th place players have both teams. Someone's going to drop points.
Boise State vs. Nevada: The Wolfpack is the only decent team on Boise's schedule, other than Virginia Tech. Boise won't lose this game, because Nevada isn't really THAT good. But if they do, watch the blue turfers drop (three of the top five players have Boise).
Okay, let's get back to Michigan-Ohio State. In his 10 years at Columbus, Jim Tressel has been a model of consistency and success: 7, 14, 11, 8, 10, 12, 11, 10, 11 wins, plus 10 wins so far this year. Since arriving in Ann Arbor, Rich Rodriguez has set all sorts of records, such as the first major NCAA sanctions and probation in the program's history, and the first three losing conference seasons in the past 40 years (2008, 2009, 2010).
And now a joke, courtesy of the eloquently named and spelled "MichiganSux.com." The joke is "Michigan Cat."
A guy walks into a bar in Ann Arbor wearing a Michigan jersey. He's carrying a cat that also has a Michigan jersey on.
The guy says to the bartender, "Can my cat and I watch the Michigan-OSU game here? My TV at home broke down, and my cat and I always watch the game together."
The bartender replies, "Normally, cats wouldn't be allowed in the bar, but it's not very busy in here right now, so you and the cat can stay. But, if there's any trouble with the cat, I'll have to ask you to leave."
The guy agrees, and he and his cat start watching the game. Pretty soon Michigan manages to kick a field goal and the excited cat jumps up on the bar, walks all the way down and gives everyone a high five.
The bartender says, "Hey, that's pretty cool! What does he do for a Michigan win?"
The guys answers, "I don't know, I've only had him for 6 years."
Friday, November 19, 2010
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
What a Weird Football Saturday
I'm glad I spent this one on the couch, in front of two TVs, because so much stuff happened I didn't believe it til I listed it all out (see below).
But first, a little MAC-tasticness. (Yeah I just made up that word.) The Ohio Bobcats played a nationally televised game last Thursday night. OK, it was ESPNU, but still, pretty good for the MAC. As much as I rip on the Alleged World Wide Leader for sucking at the one thing--sports--they are supposed to be good at, I will give credit where due. And ESPNU rolled out this fall a new set of school-specific graphics, playing off the channel's standard block "U."
You can see examples in the first few seconds of the sizzle reel from the agency (called National) that created the logos. Of course, the examples I've seen on air are the heavyweights with well-known characteristics: Alabama, Notre Dame, Southern Cal, Georgia, Penn State. So how surprising was it to see...
...during the game. This version doesn't have sound, but the Ohio "U" even snarled a bit upon spinning!
Okay, trying to recap Saturday's action. Well:
- The No. 6 team lost by 40 points. At home. I would be amazed if that has happened ever, maybe in any sport, much less football.
- These college football teams were bowl eligible at the start of action Saturday: Central Florida, Maryland (went 2-10 last year), Syracuse (no bowl since 2004), Baylor, Hawaii, San Diego State (4-8 last year, no bowl since 1998). And from the MAC: Temple, Toledo, Northern Illinois and Ohio (had six before the Thursday win).
- And these schools were not bowl eligible at the start of the day: Texas, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Florida, Michigan, Tennessee. (Italics means they got the sixth win on Saturday.)
- Michigan beat Illinois 67-65 in three overtimes. Each team scored as many points in the first half (31) as Iowa and Illinois did combined, in their entire game. This game hit the over ... in the first half. This game had more points than the last time they played in basketball. The two teams had 1,237 yards of offense. That's 0.7 of a mile.
- Mississippi State is fifth (second from last) in the SEC West, but if they were in the East, they'd be in first.
- Speaking of the Bulldogs and the SEC: Alabama plays MSU this weekend and is only ranked six spots higher. Alabama, everyone's preseason No. 1, the team prematurely coronated as a shoo-in to get back to the championship game, is barely higher than a team that before two weeks ago was last ranked in 2001.
- The "other" MSU, Sparty, jumped six spots for beating a team without a coach.
- The Big East has zero teams ranked. The Almost Competent Conference (ACC) has one. Compare that to those two conferences I can never tell apart, the Western Mountain WACky Whatever, which have four between them (Boise, Nevada, TCU, Utah).
- Let's end on this pinnacle of WTF-ality. (You damn right I just made up another word.) Colorado jumped out to a nice big lead over Kansas. It was 14-3 after one, 35-10 at the half, and 38-17 at the end of the third quarter. I was feeling pretty good about my pick of Colorado to win by 8.5 points. A Buffs TD made it 45-17, then Kansas scored 35 unanswered points in the fourth quarter for the 52-45 win. That about summarizes my picks lately, and not suprisingly, Dan Hawkins was fired.
....okay okay, the spreadsheet is updated. Analysis later, if I can bear it (hint: find my name way down on the list, and draw your own conclusions).
Friday, September 24, 2010
Pick Six: Week 4's Quick Picks
For those clamoring for a Pick Six update, here's the upshot: not much happened. The only teams to move more than two slots were Iowa (grrr) and Arizona (double grrr ... wait a minute, that's the same grrr) and Stanford (not good for the Irish). So wherever you were last week, that's probably where you are this week. I'll get my spreadsheet issue sorted out and have an update next week.
Because by Sunday, we should see some big movement. Whereas last week there was only one game between ranked teams (which was obliterated from my memory), this week there are four. At least four ranked teams are going to lose, and probably more. So you'll need to know where you stand, and I will provide.
Week 4 Preview: Things are getting MAC-tastic in the Big Ten. Check out this week's lineup of foes: Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Northern Colorado, Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Temple, Toledo and Austin Peay. Eight of 10 teams in action (Illinois had a MAC snack last week, and in typical Zook fashion almost lost, so they're taking a breather this week) are facing the Little Engine That Could of conferences. That sound you hear is the entire Big Ten fanbase yawning.
This Week It Sucks to Be: a former powerhouse. Florida and Southern California were the dominant programs of the last decade. But in 2010, the voters just don't believe. The Gators opened the preseason at 4, won and dropped to 8, won again and dropped to 10! By winning last week, they jumped all the way up to 9. But the Trojans can top that: Southern Cal has won in three straight weeks ... and dropped in the polls all three weeks (from preseason 14 to 16 to 18 to their current 20). I'm not sure if/when that's ever happened before. Hell, if they keep winning, they'll be out of the poll altogether!
Allrighty, enjoy the games tomorrow. The season is already a quarter over, and by this time tomorrow it will be a third done. But hey, let's focus on the upside: there's 75% (soon to be 67%) of the season left!
Here's hoping the temps drop into the 50s and 60s:
Friday, March 19, 2010
1000 Words: Ohio vs. Georgetown

Ohio dominated this game from beginning to end. This was not a nail biter or a buzzer beater. It was not expected, to be sure, but this was no fluke. To paraphrase the president*, "We came here to kick some Hoya butt!!"
Up next: Oh yeah. You knew this rematch might happen.
* look closely at his nametag.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Knoxville Wins Again
In fact, the 2009 TMMPF Football Tour kicked off two weeks ago with a sunny Saturday afternoon at Notre Dame Stadium and continued last weekend with a rainy Saturday night in Knoxville, Tennessee. Why Knoxville, you ask? The fighting Bobcats of Ohio University vs. the wobbly University of Tennessee Volunteers, of course. **
The view from our seats at Neyland Stadium.
I’m sure MPF will write a more detailed recap of the game, but as a proud alumna of Ohio’s first university I feel it necessary to give you some of my thoughts regarding our weekend in east Tennessee.About the football:
After spending four years in Athens, I can promise you that I honestly did not believe we had a chance to even be competitive against the Vols. Part of being a Bobcat is being pessimistic about our football team – it’s something they teach at freshman orientation.
So imagine my surprise when we not only completed 1 pass but 30! Also, conspicuously missing from our playbook in Knoxville was the ever popular fumble play. In fact our quarterback (MAC East Offensive Player of the Week, Theo Scott) was so good the Volunteer fans wanted to trade for him. Seriously!
Proof that we were winning (for just a little while at least)...
In all seriousness, before traveling to Knoxville we were told that Vol fans are friendly and knowledgeable. We were not misinformed. I cannot say enough about the hospitality of all Tennessee fans I met this past weekend. It was a good time and a good game. And, as is our custom (see 2008), Ohio came oh so close to the colossal upset... I guess there is always next year.
About the band:
In the interest of full disclosure, I am not only an alumna of Ohio University but also of the Ohio University Marching 110.
Upon convincing MPF to make the 9-hour drive to Knoxville (10-hours if you count the time change) I sprang on him the real reason I wanted to go to this particular game: too see the Marching 110 on the road.***

Just in case the Vol fans didn't know where we are from...
So we went to Neyland Stadium and, unsurprisingly, the 110 kicked ass. Even a real rock star said so. The fans at Neyland were really into it and I have it on good authority that they generally don’t stand up and cheer for just anyone.About the town:
I think the coolest part about our trip to Knoxville was, well, Knoxville.
To quote Mr. Miller "it’s a middle man’s city in an almost town". Only, clever as the line is, I’m not sure I entirely believe him (sorry Scott).
For one thing, an "almost" town wouldn’t have a place as cool as this. I wish we had had time to check out Yee-Haw sometime other than on game day. It was too wet (did I mention the rain in Knoxville?) to buy anything worth buying on Saturday.
Secondly, Knoxville has history which makes it automatically interesting.
Did you know Knoxville hosted the World's Fair in 1982?
Did you even know there was a World's Fair in 1982?
Thirdly, Knoxville has lots of places where you can have a good time, which makes it automatically fun. We ate here on Friday night and it was delicious (I recommend the fish tacos).
In many ways, Knoxville reminded me of Athens, which is probably why I liked it so much. Between the brick sidewalks, the colonial style buildings, the University within walking distance of bars and restaurants, the hills and the rain (becuase, you know, it always rains in Athens) Knoxville sort of felt like it could be my home away from home...
Way to go Knoxville, you win again!
*Shout out to Milton Bradley, Alfonso Soriano and rest of the Cubs for making this year’s transition quick and easy.
**Per the Ohio athletic department, the Bobcats should always be referred to as “Ohio”. The full name “Ohio University” may be used when referring to the opposing school also by its full name. The athletic department respectfully asks that Ohio is NOT referred to OU, Ohio U, The Ohio University or Harvard on the Hocking at any time.
***Obviously it would be easier to just go to Athens for homecoming in October but I’m already busy that weekend because of this and this.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Taunt

by Charlie Daniel of the Knoxville News Sentinel.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Week 2 Review/Week 3 Preview
Location: Steve's place for ND-Mich; my couch for everything else.
Games watched, at least partially: Georgia Tech-Clemson; Colorado-Toledo; Iowa-ISU; ND-Michigan; Ohio State-USC; snippets of UCLA-Tennessee.
Iowa: The first half was nerve-wracking, and I felt like we were in for a repeat of Week 1: Iowa's first half drives ended INT, punt, punt, TD, INT, punt, TD (short field off INT), end of half. Yeesh. But the second half: TD, TD, punt, TD, run out the clock/victory formation. (That drive chart is wrong, by the way. Worldwide Leader My Ass.)
And if you thought LOLcats were funny, you will crack up at LOLclones. (courtesy BHGP of course)
Interesting stat of the day: Iowa's leading interceptor (Tyler Sash) had more INT return yards than ISU's leading rusher (M. Hamilton) had rush yards.
Notre Dame: A lot of people wanted to ask me about the end of the ND game. I don't remember the end of the game too well, because there was drinking and shouting, and that combination tends to fuzzy-up my short-term memory. (It's also why I don't have the FaceSpace or the Tweeter thing or any last names on this blog, so that I can continue to say unprofessional things like that in quasi-anonymity.)
I'll say this. I'm not as pessimistic as Dylan at BGS and I'm not as upbeat as Joshua Vowles of Subway Domer. But I'm leaning towards Dylan. Over the winter, when asked about Weis, I said that he's finally learning that being a college head coach is different from being an NFL offensive coordinator. But it took him FOUR FULL YEARS to figure that out. Now it seems maybe he still hasn't learned, based on the playcalling at the end of the game.
And the fact remains that Weis still has not beaten a team he shouldn't have beaten. There have been plenty of maddening, unexpected losses, but he still can't point to a season-defining or career-defining or upset victory. Michigan appears to have gotten a lot better in just one offseason. Wow. But I'll reserve judgment til they go on the road.
Speaking of Subway Domer, he gets the award for best description of the outcome: "The loss to Michigan (is) sitting there like a festering wound on our ass cheeks."
Pick Six: Everyone has announced their picks. The first two weeks were good for MPF and Kitty, who slowly ticked up on the strength of BYU (me) and Nebraska (both). Tina hit a rough patch with the Oregon Ducks losing out of the gate and the Irish temporarily out of the Top 25. My only loss this week was Ohio State, but they only slipped three spots. Quigley went 6-for-6 and Tina lost with ND and OSU. Her Pick Sixth, Central Mitten, did pull a MAC Attack on Mitten State. (Frequent commenter and Friend of the Blog 83F is allegedly playing too but teams are unknown.) Scores: MPF 77, Quigley 77, TM 58.
National Roundup: Starting with my Pick Sixth: Losing a QB is bad of course, but this appears weather-able. (Eat it Skilling ... I just made up a weather-related word before you could think of it.) The next two opponents are awful K-State and bye. UCLA has a good looking (albeit true) freshman named Richard Brehaut who could step in and manage a game or two until Prince gets healthy.
Yes it's early ... but Gene Chizik has a better record than Iowa State.
Congrats to the Ty-less Huskies, who picked up their first win since Nov. 17, 2007. For context: I'd just moved back to Chicago six weeks earlier.
Back on Opening Day I wrote: "I have never believed in Okie State … I think they are the Kansas of the Big 12 South (ie, totally a mirage)." Thanks Cowpokes for living up to your reputation by losing to unranked and unheralded Houston.
Finally, I'm no fan of Western Kentucky. Their mascot is a scary blob and they denied my alma mater their first and probably only chance at an NCAA basketball tournament win in my lifetime. But I gotta give them credit for this video, particularly the :47 mark. (Thanks to Matt Hinton for finding.)
Week 3 Preview: Cheer, Cheer for Old Notre Dame
This Saturday we'll be in the stands for the first of our two ND games. Both teams are coming off tough losses, and I think this is one of those gut-check moments where we'll see what the Irish are made of. The opponent, well ...

I guess getting rid of John L. Smith isn't a fool-proof plan for mental collapses. And speaking of mental collapse, it's time for the annual listening of Mike Valenti's Total Fucking Meltdown (the MVTFM for insiders). Crank the volume (not at work) and check it out.
Seeing ND live means I'll miss Iowa's most exciting September matchup, vs. Arizona. Whenever you see two non-rival, geographically distant programs play each other, you should wonder what the connection is that brings them together. In this case, it's obvious: their coach is ex-Hawkeye Mike Stoops. In fact the whole family is Hawkeye.
Arizona hasn't appeared too impressive yet, but they do have the No. 2 rusher in the country, Herb Grisgby. Generally we do a good job of shutting down the run, but this year's version needs to prove they can stop top-tier talent like in the King and Kroul years.
Nationally, it appears to be a good Saturday to be away from the TV, since there is only one matchup of nationally ranked teams. And while it's Nebraska-Virginia Tech, it doesn't strike me as a barnburner. (Sorry Kelly.)
Elsewhere: Ohio hosts California Polytechnic State University at San Luis Obispo, a school that really needs a shortened name, and an asskicking in the making so obvious that Vegas refuses to publish a line. (Just kidding, they do that with all I-A vs. I-AA matchups.) Meanwhile, Tennessee is favored to get slaughtered by Florida, meaning that if all holds, 2-1 Ohio would visit 1-2 UT next week. Woo!
Even if your team lost last week, you gotta Stay Positive.
Wednesday, August 05, 2009
Predicting Won-Loss Records (The Easy Way)
One proxy for Won-Loss expectations could be the team's ranking in the Steele preseason poll, which takes into account talent, schedule, and is intended to predict how teams will finish the year (as opposed to a normative model, which is purely statistical, according to Rivalry, Esq.--who breaks out grad school terminology on a blog, anyway??!) . Of course, this won't work perfectly, especially for the teams at the top (it's unrealistic to expect Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, USC and LSU to all go undefeated or 11-1). But broadly speaking, you should be expected to beat the teams ranked lower, and lose to teams ranked higher. Assume the vagaries of injuries and upsets balance each other out, and you have an expected W-L record.
In 2008, Steele ranked Iowa #34. Three opponents were ranked higher (PSU #10, Wisky #21, Pitt #25) and nine lower (Northwestern the closest at #49) for an expected 9-3. The reality was 8-4, with "upsets" (in the Steele preseason sense, not necessarily the literal gameday sense) of Wisky and PSU, a mild upset (they were in the ballpark, rankwise) by NWU and shocking losses to MSU and Illinois (sorry Sarah, that shit should NOT have happened). Given how close all those losses were (4 by 12 points total), 9-3 was a good guess.
Now look at ND. Steele put them at #19, coming off a 3-9 year (ballsy). Only USC was ranked higher and an expected/definite loss, for an expected 10-1 record. Unfortunately, mild upsets by Pitt (#25) and UNC (#38) plus shocks by MSU, BC and Syracuse dropped them to 6-6. Iowa did about as well as Steele thought; ND drastically under-performed but had the potential to match the prediction.
How does this look back help us put 2009 in focus? Steele is high on both my teams, with the Hawks at #20 and the Irish at #7. Iowa would be expected to lose to Penn St. (#5) and A State University in Ohio (#10), but four other opponents lurk in the Top 50: Mich State (#29), Wisky (#38), Arizona (#40) and Meechigan (#48). Plus, those four highest-ranked conference teams are all on the road for us. So a "raw" record of 10-2 might be expected in theory, but four conference road losses and a possible ILTCMTS* means 7-5 isn't unreasonable either.
Notre Dame, near the top of the pack, doesn't have much breathing room. Southern Cal is still above them (#3), and only four teams could reasonably cause trouble: Pitt #23, Mich St. #29, Nevada #35, Meechigan #48. That's a 10-1 record, particularly considering we get Nevada (our home opener) and Michigan (probably breaking in a true freshman QB) early, Pitt loses stud RB McCoy, and we get USC at home. The giant question, though: Is Phil over-ranking the Irish?
Finally, a quick look at my favorite MAC team: Frank Solich is three games under .500 (23-26) at Ohio, and I think it would be great for him to get back to even. That means an 8-5 season (7-5 with bowl win, or more likely 8-4 with a bowl loss) would do it.
How does he get there? Using the schedule proxy system, Ohio at #74 is looking at almost-certain wins against Northern Illinois (#96), Buffalo (101), Kent State (106), Ball State (108), Bowling Green (111), North Texas (116), (Fake) Miami (117), and Cal Poly SLO (I-AA school). That's eight right there. Put aside for a moment the fact that Solich has averaged just under six wins a year in his Athens tenure ... we're being lazy, remember? (And if you're asking yourself, wait, both of last year's division champions are ranked in triple digits? ... yes, yes, they are. Welcome to the MAC.)
Temple (#86) and Akron (87) are in the ballpark, and UConn at #73 is a dead heat where you have to give an edge to the home team, particularly early in the year and with a senior quarterback returning.
Only Tennessee (40) is a near-certain loss ... but no less an authority on Volunteer football than Scott Miller said they won't be very good at all this year. His direct quote: "We will lose a LOT this season." An early lead by a motivated Bobcat squad could take the fans out of the game, much like the the Ohio State game in 2008. So even with a TCLTCTS** or two thrown in there, the schedule looks favorable for another winning Bobcat season.
If you want to play this game with another ranking list, wait a few weeks for the New York Times list to be complete, and look up your own team. Or of course, buy yourself a copy of Steele.
* Inexplicable Loss That Causes Me to Throw Shit
** Tantalizingly Close Loss That Causes TM to Swear
Sunday, June 07, 2009
GOT MY STEELE
Thanks to the lovely TM (who stopped by the Clark/Diversey Borders today) it is, to quote Orson Swindle, "in hand, motherfuckers," two days before the official onsale date.
It's even the Midwest regional cover, with Clausen, Pryor and a Michigan running back.
Here's the quick overview: ND at #7, and #9 in the Power Poll. Iowa at #20, and #16 in the Power Poll. So Steele thinks ND will end the season slightly better than their talent would predict, based on an easy slate, and Iowa will be hurt by their four tough road games (PSU, OSU, Wisky, MSU). He's got Penn St. first in the conference, then OSU and Illinois (WTF?!?!) tied at second, then Iowa.
And, because I haven't used the "MAC Attack" tag in a while: Phil likes the Bobcats to win the MAC East, saying they were "much better than (their) final '08 record and this season will fly under the radar" as his No. 2 Most Improved Team.
Full report Tuesday.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Week 7 Review/Week 8 Preview
First, a little schadenfreude: (let this play while you read the next part, but use headphones if you're at work or if kids are around)



This was a historic loss: first ever to a MAC school. And not even a good MAC school--Toledo had not beaten a I-A school until Michigan. Detroit Free Press columnist Drew Sharp called the loss "worse than Appalachian State."
Also Saturday, Iowa somehow put all the pieces together in a dominant performance at Bloomington. Last time the Hawkeyes went to Bloomington, I was there and it did not go as well. (In fact the football team scored more points than the basketball team did that night.) But the O-Line created huge holes for the running game, Stanzi proved he is the Manzi by recovering from first half nerves to lead Iowa on several scoring drives. It gives me hope for next week (more on that in a minute).
Catching up on some Pick Sixin', not that I really want to:
In the games of Week 6, Auburn (MPF) had a close loss at inexplicably good Vanderbilt. TM and I shared the South Florida loss to Pitt, and the cat had five wins and a bye. I took hit of 10 total points, Quigley moved up two, and (sigh) Ball State entered in the top 25 for the first time ever.

After closing the gap from 19 points (Week 4) to 11 (Week 5), I let it slip to 19 again (Week 6). I needed a strong performance in Week 7 to stay competitive. So what happened? Well, Auburn fired Tony Franklin (he of the Tony Franklin offense), so another loss (this week to Arkansas) was probably inevitable. That was my only loss, but it kicked Auburn to the curb--goodbye, six points. Tina's huge Florida win over LSU was offset by Mizzou's loss to Okie State. Quigley had TWO losses but managed to move up in the standings: Clemson was already out of the top 25 (and appears to be for the duration, now that they've fired Tommy Bowden), and Illinois choked against a potentially good Minnesota (they went 1-11 last year, currently 6-1). Penn State's domination fueled their climb up the charts, currently at No. 3.
So not only did TM's lead grow, the cat is now within scratching distance of second place:

As for the Irish:

The ram/Tar Heel thing took time from stiff-arming cheerleaders to temper Irish expectations. This loss didn't bother me, personally: we knew this team would succeed and fail in fits and starts. I'm not a head coach, so I'm allowed the nuance of "good losses" and "moral victories" and the like. The fact that ND had a -5 turnover margin, on the road, and lost by only five points, shows they were competitive all game through. I'll take a UNC loss over an MSU loss any day.
Games watched, all or part: Interactive Tuesday!! from an Irish bar in downtown Los Angeles, Clemson/Wake (Thurs), Iowa/Indiana (main TV), Texas/Okla (little TV), Tenn/Georgia, ND/North Carolina, Mich St./Northwestern, Okie St./Mizzou, Penn St/Wisc, UCLA/Oregon (the fall asleep game).
Week 8: Bring on the Steenking Badgers
On Saturday we'll be at Kinnick for the Iowa-Wisconsin game. It'll be my third game of the year in three states, TM's fourth in four. The Hawkeyes are undefeated when my co-author attends a home game, so I'm optimistic. We got tickets through a friend of my mom known as "Hawkeye Joyce." I'm telling ya, if you want Iowa tickets, it doesn't hurt to go to someone with "Hawkeye" in her name. I mentioned to Mom to see if Joyce had any connections or ideas on how to score tix for what I figured what a sold-out game. Two emails and 10 minutes later, Joyce had a pair in my name.
I don't know what happened to the Hawks between the three straight losses and the 36-point margin of victory at Indiana, cause they looked like totally different teams. But my hope for a bowl is restored, although the margin for error is slim. Here's how I perceive our best bets to pick up the two wins needed for a bowl*:
- Purdue. They are just awful, they appear to have quit on Uncle Wilford, and they come to Kinnick.
- This Saturday, vs. Wisconsin. They are a talented team, ranked No. 8 in the country (not the conference, the whole United States) just four weeks ago. But they are wounded, discouraged and depressed. Plus they could be breaking in a new quarterback, after Allen Everidge got benched in the PSU blowout.
- @Illinois. Anybody remember when I predicted Illinois would have a huge falloff?
At 3-3, they need five wins in the final six games to get to the eight wins predicted by Vegas. Memorial Stadium was never a house of horrors, and Minnesota (!! ... I still can't fathom it) proved there's not much of a home-field advantage there. The defense is awful, and if Iowa can shut down the Illinois run game and force Juice to pass, we should win.You heard it here first: Illinois, way too high at 8.0 [projected] wins. No, I haven't looked at their schedule. But I have looked at their depth chart: no Mendenhall, no RB to replace him [and] a shaky Juice Williams still at QB. ... If you're smart enough to be reading this, and you're offered 8 wins for Illinois: Take The Under!
- @Minnesota. I know this sounds weird to say, and I mentioned it above, but Minnesota has gone from 1-11 in 2007 to 6-1 so far. Two conference wins prove they are at least kinda sorta for real. I think this will be a tough game for Iowa.
- Penn State. They are unreal, have crushed everyone they've seen, and for whatever reason we play better at Happy Valley than Iowa City. An almost-guaranteed loss.
Pick Six: TM is going to lose points somehow when Texas hosts Missouri. Ohio State (Quig and MPF) faces a surprisingly tough and ranked Michigan State team. Kansas (Quigley) goes to Oklahoma, sure to be angry about last week. TM will be forced to choose between Pick Six points (Wake Forest) and reptilian fear (Maryland).
In honor of the MACAttack! last week and Mizzou going to face No. 1 Texas, here's a MACFAC(t): Not only is Gary Pinkel a former head coach of a MAC school (Toledo), but he also is a graduate of Kent State and was an assistant at Bowling Green.
Oh, and lookee who's back in the Top 25:
Of course, so is this.Nebraska: Congrats on staying closer than expected with the Mike Leach Pirate Attack. The improvement is visible, but it's still a loss, so there'll be YouTubery next week (this post is already pretty full). Beat the crap out of ISU, and I'll bring back Herbie next week.
Go Hawkeyes! Beat Badgers!
* Due to the general mediocrity of the Big Ten this year, I think six wins will be sufficient, unlike last year. The conference has seven bowl games (Rose, Aaargh I Hate Your Commercials, Outback Steakhouse, Alamo, Champs, Insight Dotcom, and the Your Punishment Is Going To Detroit In December Bowl). We're currently sixth in total wins (4-3), with three games left against teams below us in the standings.



